Isaac Saul#3 of 21 election pundits · Nov 3, 2026

Saul asserts that Democrats have the House sewn up, and says Democrats appear to be running away with the statewide races in Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire while having good odds in Maine and Michigan.

Published in writing · Tangle (newsletter)Read the original

6 of 6calls landed6 hits · all settled

100Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls

50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5Races calledevery call on each below

#3Isaac Saul’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Isaac Saul said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

Still, nobody contests that Democrats have the House locked up.

Isaac Saul, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: Tangle (newsletter)
The piece: The 2026 midterms are here.
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidNov 3
Election DayNov 3
GradedNov 10

1Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina“Two years later, Democrats appear to be running away with statewide races in Georgia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.”
2Control of Congress“Still, nobody contests that Democrats have the House locked up.”
3Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire“Two years later, Democrats appear to be running away with statewide races in Georgia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.”
4Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine“They have good odds of winning in Maine and Michigan.”
5Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan“They have good odds of winning in Maine and Michigan.”
6Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia“Two years later, Democrats appear to be running away with statewide races in Georgia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina¹	Race Winners	Roy Cooper won	100	0	+100
“Still, nobody contests that Democrats have the House locked up.”²	Control of Congress	—	100	0	+100
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire³	Race Winners	Chris Pappas won	100	100	0
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine⁴	Race Winners	Troy Jackson won	100	0	+100
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan⁵	Race Winners	Abdul El-Sayed won	100	100	0
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia⁶	Race Winners	Jon Ossoff won	100	100	0
6 calls · 6 hits · all settled			100	50

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

6 checkable claims — 5 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 6 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Race Winners
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
What happenedRoy Cooper woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-nc
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
running away with
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Roy Cooper
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Roy Cooper
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
2Control of Congress
“Still, nobody contests that Democrats have the House locked up.”
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
chamber:
2026-house
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
3Race Winners
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
What happenedChris Pappas woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-nh
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
running away with
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Chris Pappas
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Chris Pappas
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
4Race Winners
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
What happenedTroy Jackson woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-me
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
good odds of winning
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Troy Jackson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
decided in the:
general
they said:
Troy Jackson
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
5Race Winners
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
What happenedAbdul El-Sayed woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-mi
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
good odds of winning
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Abdul El-Sayed
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Abdul El-Sayed
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
6Race Winners
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
What happenedJon Ossoff woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-ga
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
running away with
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Jon Ossoff
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jon Ossoff
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 50

The races in this take

every call on each

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.