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Writes at Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Is Nate Silver accurate? Across 5 graded calls in 4 articles, Nate Silver scores 62.5% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 63.13, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“Arizona is the one state that seems like the safest bet for Trump”
“and a seventy one point four percent probability of winning the popular vote”
“Kamala Harris has a forty five point three percent chance of winning the electoral college... It's basically fifty five forty five Trump or fifty four forty five with a small chance of a tie.”
“The Silver Bullets and forecast as of this morning has Harris with a fifty three percent chance and Trump at forty seven percent.”
“The latest Silver Bulletin forecast is Trump with a fifty three percent chance of winning the electoral college, Harris forty seven percent.”