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Isaac Saul#3 of 21 election pundits · Nov 3, 2026

Saul says Democrats have the House sewn up heading into election night, and that Democrats have good odds of winning the Senate races in Maine and Michigan.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Tangle (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 3calls landed3 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
33.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Races calledevery call on each below
#3Isaac Saul’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Isaac Saul said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Still, nobody can test that Democrats have the house locked up.
Isaac Saul, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Tangle (podcast)
The episode
SPECIAL EDITION: The 2026 midterms are here.
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidNov 3
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10
  1. 1Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan“They have good odds of winning in Maine and Michigan.”
  2. 2Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine“They have good odds of winning in Maine and Michigan.”
  3. 3Control of Congress“Still, nobody can test that Democrats have the house locked up.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan1Race WinnersAbdul El-Sayed won1001000
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine2Race WinnersTroy Jackson won1000+100
“Still, nobody can test that Democrats have the house locked up.”3Control of Congress—1000+100
3 calls · 3 hits · all settled10033.3

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Race Winners

    Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan

    What happenedAbdul El-Sayed woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-senate-mi
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    in their words:
    good odds of winning
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Abdul El-Sayed
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Abdul El-Sayed
    days before the vote when called:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Race Winners

    Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine

    What happenedTroy Jackson woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-senate-me
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    100
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    in their words:
    good odds of winning
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Troy Jackson
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Troy Jackson
    days before the vote when called:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Control of Congress

    “Still, nobody can test that Democrats have the house locked up.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    100
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-house
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    100naive 33.3

The races in this take

every call on each
Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.