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2026 Nevada gubernatorial election

Governors · November 3, 2026 · no result loaded yet

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · November 3, 2026

  • Aaron Ford77¢
  • Joe Lombardo25¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. This is the last price we read before the polls closed; prices taken after the vote are not shown. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any market or sportsbook. Not betting or financial advice.

The polls · VoteHub · 1 poll in 21 days · through October 25, 2026

  • Aaron Ford49.0%
  • Joe Lombardo45.0%

Aaron Ford by 4.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 7 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Hart Research Associates · for A More Affordable Nevada2026-10-20 – 2026-10-25950 LVAaron Ford 49% · Joe Lombardo 45%
Noble Predictive Insights2026-09-22 – 2026-09-26800 RVJoe Lombardo 38% · Aaron Ford 37% · Danielle Ford 7%
Emerson College · for KLAS-TV2026-09-05 – 2026-09-08680 LVAaron Ford 44.2% · Joe Lombardo 42% · Danielle Ford 2.4%
Noble Predictive Insights2026-03-10 – 2026-03-13845 RVJoe Lombardo 39% · Aaron Ford 38%
Hart Research Associates (DEM) · for Majority Institute2026-02-11 – 2026-02-17800 LVJoe Lombardo 46% · Aaron Ford 43%
Emerson College2025-11-16 – 2025-11-18800 RVJoe Lombardo 41.1% · Aaron Ford 41.1%
Noble Predictive Insights2025-10-07 – 2025-10-13766 RVJoe Lombardo 40% · Aaron Ford 37%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Oct 11Oct 18Oct 25Nov 1Nov 8
Joe Lombardo 1Aaron Ford 1· 2 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (3)

Newest first. A winner call is graded once the race is called and confirmed; a margin or share once the result is certified.

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