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2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio

Senate · special election · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Sherrod Brown60¢
  • Jon Husted41¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 5 polls in 21 days · through September 29, 2026

  • Sherrod Brown46.8%
  • Jon Husted43.6%
  • William Redpath4.0%
  • Greg Levy2.0%

Sherrod Brown by 3.2 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
InsiderAdvantage2026-09-28 – 2026-09-291200 LVSherrod Brown 44% · Jon Husted 43% · William Redpath 4% · Greg Levy 2%
Marist University2026-09-24 – 2026-09-271298 RVSherrod Brown 51% · Jon Husted 43%
Big Data Poll · for Public Polling Project2026-09-26 – 2026-09-27680 LVSherrod Brown 46.3% · Jon Husted 42.6%
Quantus Insights2026-09-21 – 2026-09-23695 LVSherrod Brown 47.8% · Jon Husted 47.3%
Trafalgar Group (REP)2026-09-14 – 2026-09-161085 LVSherrod Brown 45% · Jon Husted 42%
InsiderAdvantage2026-09-08 – 2026-09-091200 LVSherrod Brown 47.3% · Jon Husted 41.9%
Wedgewood Polls2026-08-11 – 2026-08-13800 LVSherrod Brown 48% · Jon Husted 44%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-08-06 – 2026-08-101008 RVSherrod Brown 53% · Jon Husted 45%
The New York Times/Siena University2026-06-15 – 2026-06-28601 LVJon Husted 50% · Sherrod Brown 47%
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research · for AARP2026-06-14 – 2026-06-16800 LVSherrod Brown 48% · Jon Husted 45%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-05-28 – 2026-06-011015 RVSherrod Brown 53% · Jon Husted 45%
Bowling Green State University/YouGov2026-04-07 – 2026-04-141000 RVJon Husted 50% · Sherrod Brown 47%

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (6)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.