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2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas

Senate · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Roger Marshall63¢
  • Adam Hamilton38¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 2 polls in 21 days · through September 24, 2026

  • Adam Hamilton47.5%
  • Roger Marshall45.5%
  • David Graham3.0%

Adam Hamilton by 2.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 3 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Wedgewood Polls2026-09-22 – 2026-09-24500 LVAdam Hamilton 50% · Roger Marshall 48% · David Graham 2%
Emerson College · for Nexstar Media2026-09-15 – 2026-09-16750 LVAdam Hamilton 45% · Roger Marshall 43% · David Graham 4%
Tavern Research2026-01-26 – 2026-01-281013 LVRoger Marshall 54% · Adam Hamilton 46%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 27Oct 4
Roger Marshall 3Adam Hamilton 1· 4 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (4)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.