Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina

Senate · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Roy Cooper96¢
  • Michael Whatley5¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 4 polls in 21 days · through September 29, 2026

  • Roy Cooper49.6%
  • Michael Whatley39.4%
  • Shannon Bray3.9%
  • Michael Dublin2.4%

Roy Cooper by 10.2 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Big Data Poll · for Public Polling Project2026-09-27 – 2026-09-29642 LVRoy Cooper 51% · Michael Whatley 39% · Shannon Bray 7% · Michael Dublin 4%
InsiderAdvantage2026-09-16 – 2026-09-171200 LVRoy Cooper 48.4% · Michael Whatley 42.5% · Shannon Bray 1.6% · Michael Dublin 1.1%
High Point University Survey Research Center2026-09-09 – 2026-09-16706 LVRoy Cooper 50% · Michael Whatley 42%
Harper Polling · for Carolina Journal2026-09-13 – 2026-09-15608 LVRoy Cooper 49% · Michael Whatley 34% · Shannon Bray 3% · Michael Dublin 2%
East Carolina University2026-08-31 – 2026-09-03675 LVRoy Cooper 52% · Michael Whatley 44% · Shannon Bray 3% · Michael Dublin 1%
Elon University/YouGov2026-08-21 – 2026-08-31565 LVRoy Cooper 49% · Michael Whatley 38% · Michael Dublin 2% · Shannon Bray 2%
High Point University Survey Research Center2026-08-03 – 2026-08-12660 LVRoy Cooper 50% · Michael Whatley 45%
High Point University Survey Research Center2026-08-03 – 2026-08-12800 RVRoy Cooper 48% · Michael Whatley 41%
Harper Polling · for The Carolina Journal2026-08-09 – 2026-08-10600 LVRoy Cooper 51.5% · Michael Whatley 39%
Change Research (DEM) · for Carolina Forward2026-08-03 – 2026-08-06915 LVRoy Cooper 50% · Michael Whatley 43%
Change Research · for Talking About Politics2026-07-29 – 2026-08-01967 LVRoy Cooper 50% · Michael Whatley 41%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-07-23 – 2026-07-271005 RVRoy Cooper 53% · Michael Whatley 44%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 20Sep 27Oct 4
Roy Cooper 5· 5 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (10)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.