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2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas

Senate · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • James Talarico68¢
  • Ken Paxton34¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 4 polls in 21 days · through September 28, 2026

  • James Talarico48.5%
  • Ken Paxton46.5%
  • Ted Brown2.7%

James Talarico by 2.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-09-24 – 2026-09-28881 LVJames Talarico 51% · Ken Paxton 49%
Slingshot Strategies · for Texas Public Opinion Research2026-09-19 – 2026-09-221007 LVJames Talarico 49% · Ken Paxton 45% · Ted Brown 3%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center2026-09-15 – 2026-09-191800 LVJames Talarico 47% · Ken Paxton 46% · Ted Brown 3%
Emerson College · for Nexstar Media2026-09-12 – 2026-09-141000 LVJames Talarico 47% · Ken Paxton 46% · Ted Brown 2%
ReconMR/Siena University2026-09-08 – 2026-09-11614 LVJames Talarico 49% · Ken Paxton 43%
InsiderAdvantage2026-09-08 – 2026-09-091200 LVJames Talarico 47.1% · Ken Paxton 45.6% · Ted Brown 2.2%
YouGov · for Univision2026-08-27 – 2026-09-041000 RVJames Talarico 48% · Ken Paxton 43%
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research2026-08-30 – 2026-09-01895 LVJames Talarico 48% · Ken Paxton 44%
Slingshot Strategies · for Texas Public Opinion Research2026-08-21 – 2026-08-241000 LVJames Talarico 48% · Ken Paxton 42% · Ted Brown 1%
The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov2026-08-05 – 2026-08-131218 RVJames Talarico 42% · Ken Paxton 39% · Ted Brown 3%
Emerson College · for Nexstar Media2026-08-09 – 2026-08-101000 LVKen Paxton 47% · James Talarico 46%
Wedgewood Polls2026-07-30 – 2026-07-31800 LVJames Talarico 48% · Ken Paxton 46%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 20Sep 27Oct 4
Ken Paxton 5James Talarico 5· 10 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (16)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.