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2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan

Senate · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Abdul El-Sayed73¢
  • Mike Rogers28¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 8 polls in 21 days · through September 30, 2026

  • Abdul El-Sayed48.0%
  • Mike Rogers44.8%
  • Lydia Christensen1.1%
  • Douglas P. Marsh0.8%

Abdul El-Sayed by 3.2 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Trafalgar Group (REP)2026-09-28 – 2026-09-301085 LVAbdul El-Sayed 47% · Mike Rogers 45% · Lydia Christensen 2% · Tim Long 1%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-09-24 – 2026-09-281028 LVAbdul El-Sayed 50% · Mike Rogers 49%
co/efficient2026-09-21 – 2026-09-23843 LVAbdul El-Sayed 50% · Mike Rogers 50%
The New York Times/Siena University2026-09-15 – 2026-09-22605 LVAbdul El-Sayed 49% · Mike Rogers 44%
Cygnal/Beacon Research · for Michigan Enjoyer2026-09-18 – 2026-09-21600 LVAbdul El-Sayed 45% · Mike Rogers 40% · Lydia Christensen 1% · Walter P. Kristy 0%
Suffolk University2026-09-16 – 2026-09-20500 LVAbdul El-Sayed 47% · Mike Rogers 40% · Lydia Christensen 1% · Walter P. Kristy 1%
The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government2026-09-10 – 2026-09-14803 LVAbdul El-Sayed 48% · Mike Rogers 45%
Emerson College · for Nexstar Media2026-09-12 – 2026-09-141000 LVAbdul El-Sayed 48.2% · Mike Rogers 45.7% · Douglas P. Marsh 3% · Tim Long 0.6%
Trafalgar Group (REP)2026-09-07 – 2026-09-091079 LVAbdul El-Sayed 46.3% · Mike Rogers 44.8% · Lydia Christensen 0.8% · Tim Long 0.7%
EPIC-MRA2026-08-22 – 2026-08-28600 LVAbdul El-Sayed 47% · Mike Rogers 43%
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov2026-08-10 – 2026-08-20779 LVAbdul El-Sayed 50% · Mike Rogers 45%
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov2026-08-10 – 2026-08-20913 RVAbdul El-Sayed 48% · Mike Rogers 44%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 20Sep 27Oct 4
Abdul El-Sayed 7Mike Rogers 4· 11 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (13)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.