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2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine

Senate · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Troy Jackson60¢
  • Susan Collins41¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 7 polls in 21 days · through October 1, 2026

  • Troy Jackson48.5%
  • Susan Collins47.0%

Troy Jackson by 1.5 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Wedgewood Polls2026-09-27 – 2026-10-01400 LVTroy Jackson 52% · Susan Collins 48%
co/efficient2026-09-28 – 2026-09-301240 LVSusan Collins 48% · Troy Jackson 46%
The New York Times/Siena University · for Portland Press Herald2026-09-15 – 2026-09-22619 LVSusan Collins 49% · Troy Jackson 46%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research · for AARP2026-09-20 – 2026-09-22982 LVTroy Jackson 50% · Susan Collins 47%
University of New Hampshire2026-09-17 – 2026-09-211312 LVTroy Jackson 51% · Susan Collins 47%
Quantus Insights2026-09-14 – 2026-09-15621 LVSusan Collins 47.1% · Troy Jackson 46.4%
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov2026-08-28 – 2026-09-14650 LVTroy Jackson 48% · Susan Collins 43%
YouGov2026-09-02 – 2026-09-081335 LVTroy Jackson 48% · Susan Collins 44%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-08-06 – 2026-08-101000 RVTroy Jackson 48% · Susan Collins 46%
Hart Research Associates (DEM) · for Senate Majority PAC2026-07-27 – 2026-08-01802 LVTroy Jackson 49% · Susan Collins 45%
University of New Hampshire2026-07-15 – 2026-07-201178 LVTroy Jackson 49% · Susan Collins 46%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-06-23 – 2026-06-271003 RVSusan Collins 50% · Graham Platner 47%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 20Sep 27Oct 4
Susan Collins 2Troy Jackson 1· 3 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (3)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.