Tyler Sullivan· Aug 3, 2026
A CBS Sports piece predicts the winners of the four ongoing quarterback battles — Kyler Murray in Minnesota, Tua Tagovailoa in Atlanta, Deshaun Watson in Cleveland and Kirk Cousins in Las Vegas — and names several veterans (Brissett, Geno Smith, Malik Willis) as their teams' Week 1 starters, with rookie Fernando Mendoza opening as Cousins' backup.
“Prediction : Kyler Murray wins the Week 1 job.”
published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →
9 checkable claims — 9 depth chart calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 75 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 5 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the room on 1 and below it on 4.
Where this call stands in the room
Fernando Mendoza · 2026 season17 calls from 15 pundits between 1 and 2. Tyler Sullivan said 2. the room's median is 1. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Falcons at Steelers 34 calls
- Browns at Jaguars 38 calls
- Dolphins at Raiders 48 calls
- Packers at Vikings 42 calls
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Deshaun Watson to be 1st on the depth chart
“Prediction : Deshaun Watson wins the Week 1 job.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CLE
- week:
- 1
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Deshaun Watson
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he starts
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- reported:
- named the starter
- settled by:
- a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Kirk Cousins to be 1st on the depth chart
“Prediction : Kirk Cousins wins the Week 1 job.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LV
- week:
- 1
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Kirk Cousins
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he starts
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- reported:
- named the starter
- naive slot:
- 2
- settled by:
- a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he keeps the job he had last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Kyler Murray to be 1st on the depth chart
“Prediction : Kyler Murray wins the Week 1 job.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- MIN
- week:
- 1
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Kyler Murray
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he starts
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- reported:
- named the starter
- naive slot:
- 2
- settled by:
- a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he keeps the job he had last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Tua Tagovailoa to be 1st on the depth chart
“Prediction : Tua Tagovailoa wins the Week 1 job.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- ATL
- week:
- 1
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tua Tagovailoa
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he starts
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- reported:
- he did not play that week
- naive slot:
- 1
- settled by:
- weekly snap counts (he took no snap in the game)
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he keeps the job he had last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsGeno SmithNew York JetsAug 3, 2026
Geno Smith to be 1st on the depth chart
“Smith's lane to begin the season as the starter is clear.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Fernando Mendoza to be 2nd on the depth chart
“Even if Mendoza takes training camp by storm, Kubiak's path for the young quarterback could lead to him starting his career as Cousins' backup.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Depth Chart CallsMalik WillisMiami DolphinsAug 3, 2026
Malik Willis to be 1st on the depth chart
“Given that contract, he'll be the wire-to-wire starter for Miami in 2026.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jacoby Brissett to be 1st on the depth chart
“The veteran will almost certainly be the Cardinals' QB1 to begin the 2026 campaign”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
J.J. McCarthy to be 2nd on the depth chart
“it's hard not to see Murray coming out on top ... Prediction : Kyler Murray wins the Week 1 job.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Minnesota VikingsHit · 90Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Carter BahnsRoster Spot Calls · Jeshaun JonesMiss · 0A CBS Sports piece expects suspended Vikings receiver Jeshaun Jones to lose his roster battle and be cut by the Aug. 30 deadline, given Minnesota's established receiver group.
- Ryan WilsonPosition Order Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0In his Week 3 waiver column, Fitzmaurice makes several depth-chart calls around injuries: Jonah Coleman leading Denver's backfield, Marcus Mariota taking over in Washington, Michael Penix Jr. starting once healthy, and Malik Washington serving as Miami's top receiver, plus availability expectations for Detroit's injured safeties.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Rashod BatemanMiss · 0In his Week 2 waiver wire column, Fitzmaurice recommends a slate of pickups he expects to outperform their current rostership (Kaelon Black, Deebo Samuel, Tyler Shough, Geno Smith and others), lays out several depth-chart expectations (Black as the 49ers' No. 2 back, Shedeur Sanders eventually taking over in Cleveland, Penix returning for Atlanta), and flags Fool's Gold/drop candidates such as Mike Gesicki, Kendrick Bourne and Rashid Shaheed.
- Bill HuberDepth Chart Calls · Chris McClellanMiss · 0Huber's first Packers rookie progress report projects second-round cornerback Brandon Cisse to hold onto his spot with the No. 1 defense, third-round defensive tackle Chris McClellan to start in Week 1, and fifth-round lineman Jager Burton to be the team's top interior backup rather than a starter.
- Randy GurziDepth Chart Calls · Jadarian PriceHit · 100Gurzi suggests the Seahawks could sign three free agents — safety Donovan Wilson, guard Kevin Zeitler, and running back Kareem Hunt — if weaknesses show up after Week 1. He also notes Trevon Diggs starting on the practice squad and describes Seattle's projected backfield roles.
- Jeff KerrDepth Chart Calls · Jalyx HuntMiss · 0From an Eagles training camp practice, Kerr projects Willie Lampkin as a possible 53-man roster player, Jalyx Hunt as the likely Week 1 starting edge rusher over Nolan Smith, Byron Young as the No. 4 defensive tackle, Jake Elliott as the uncontested kicker, and Darius Cooper pressuring Hollywood Brown for the WR4 role.
- Emmett MatasovskyDepth Chart Calls · Christian IzienMiss · 0Matasovsky says Dobbs is currently leading the backup quarterback race and suggests Christian Izien may be pressed into a starting safety role in Week 1 while Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph rehab.