Mike MoraitisAug 24, 2026

Moraitis names seven Bears as trade candidates before roster cuts, predicting Kiran Amegadjie and Jedrick Wills are on the roster bubble and likely to be traded, while Ozzy Trapilo avoids an injured list, and listing several players as locks for the 53-man roster.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

14 of 14calls landed14 hits · 5 waiting

100Average accuracyout of 100, across 14 calls

78.6A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

14 of 19Settled5 still waiting

5Waitingnot graded yet

What Mike Moraitis said

That said, Amegadjie and Wills are far more likely to be moved than Jones and Benedet.

Mike Moraitis, the lead quote

Where it was published: Sports Illustrated
The piece: Top 7 Chicago Bears Trade Candidates Entering Preseason Week 3
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidAug 24
GradedSep 25–Oct 7

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Waiting
Trade and Signing Calls	1	4
Roster Spot Calls	13	1
All	14	5

How each call scored

19 checkable claims — 14 roster spot calls and 5 trade and signing calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 20 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

14 of 19 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 78.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Trade and Signing Calls1 hit · 4 waitingShow ▸

Terell Smith to move to Chicago Bears
“The Bears have been ravaged by injuries in the secondary during the offseason, but Smith could still miss the cut, making him a trade candidate.”
Terell Smith Chicago Bears
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
player:
Terell Smith
season:
2026
claimed:
he leaves
was with:
CHI
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
reported:
signed → PIT (from WAS)
settled by:
a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he stays where he is
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Kentavius Street to move to Chicago Bears
“Kentavius Street and James Lynch appear to be the best bets to make the 53-man roster out of the remaining defensive linemen, but one of them will likely have to go. Knowing that, don't be surprised to see either one traded before cuts.”
Kentavius Street Chicago Bears
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Kiran Amegadjie to move to Chicago Bears
“That said, Amegadjie and Wills are far more likely to be moved than Jones and Benedet.”
Kiran Amegadjie Chicago Bears
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Jedrick Wills to move to Chicago Bears
“That said, Amegadjie and Wills are far more likely to be moved than Jones and Benedet.”
Jedrick Wills Chicago Bears
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
James Lynch to move to Chicago Bears
“Kentavius Street and James Lynch appear to be the best bets to make the 53-man roster out of the remaining defensive linemen, but one of them will likely have to go. Knowing that, don't be surprised to see either one traded before cuts.”
James Lynch Chicago Bears
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Roster Spot Calls13 hits · 1 waitingShow ▸

Marcus Davenport to make the roster
“Davenport is likely to make Chicago's roster, also, after being signed recently”
Marcus Davenport Chicago Bears
1 week on a 53
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
0
player:
Marcus Davenport
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
1
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
4
weeks on the practice squad:
3
Think this is wrong?
Josh Blackwell to make the roster
“As things stand now, Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Malik Muhammad and Josh Blackwell are locked in”
Josh Blackwell Chicago Bears
3 weeks on a 53
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
0
player:
Josh Blackwell
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
Austin Booker to make the roster
“they have Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker and Daniel Hardy all locked-in”
Austin Booker Chicago Bears
3 weeks on a 53
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
0
player:
Austin Booker
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
Montez Sweat to make the roster
“they have Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker and Daniel Hardy all locked-in”
Montez Sweat Chicago Bears
3 weeks on a 53
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
0
player:
Montez Sweat
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
Daniel Hardy to make the roster
“they have Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker and Daniel Hardy all locked-in”
Daniel Hardy Chicago Bears
3 weeks on a 53
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
0
player:
Daniel Hardy
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
Dayo Odeyingbo to make the roster
“they have Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker and Daniel Hardy all locked-in”
Dayo Odeyingbo Chicago Bears
3 weeks on a 53
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
0
player:
Dayo Odeyingbo
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
Jaylon Johnson to make the roster
“As things stand now, Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Malik Muhammad and Josh Blackwell are locked in”
Jaylon Johnson Chicago Bears
3 weeks on a 53
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
0
player:
Jaylon Johnson
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
Malik Muhammad to make the roster
“As things stand now, Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Malik Muhammad and Josh Blackwell are locked in”
Malik Muhammad Chicago Bears
3 weeks on a 53
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
200
player:
Malik Muhammad
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
Tyrique Stevenson to make the roster
“As things stand now, Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Malik Muhammad and Josh Blackwell are locked in”
Tyrique Stevenson Chicago Bears
3 weeks on a 53
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
0
player:
Tyrique Stevenson
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
Ozzy Trapilo to make the roster
“Even if he isn't ready for Week 1, Trapilo is likely to avoid beginning the season on an injured list, leaving one less tackle spot open on the initial 53.”
Ozzy Trapilo Chicago Bears
3 weeks on a 53
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
0
player:
Ozzy Trapilo
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
Neville Gallimore to make the roster
“have Gervon Dexter, Grady Jarrett, Neville Gallimore and van den Berg as roster locks”
Neville Gallimore Chicago Bears
3 weeks on a 53
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
0
player:
Neville Gallimore
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
Jordan van den Berg to make the roster
“With Jordan van den Berg ascending and locked-in to make the 53-man roster”
Jordan van den Berg Chicago Bears
3 weeks on a 53
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
200
player:
Jordan van den Berg
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
Grady Jarrett to make the roster
“have Gervon Dexter, Grady Jarrett, Neville Gallimore and van den Berg as roster locks”
Grady Jarrett Chicago Bears
3 weeks on a 53
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
0
player:
Grady Jarrett
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
Gervon Dexter Sr. to make the roster
“have Gervon Dexter, Grady Jarrett, Neville Gallimore and van den Berg as roster locks”
Gervon Dexter Sr.Chicago Bears
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

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More roster spot calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.
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Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.
Parker Hurley · Roster Spot Calls · Khalid Kareem · Miss 0
Hurley predicts the 49ers will release Khalil Kareem when Nate Hobbs is activated and cut Brandin Cooks when C.J. West returns, while arguing Sebastian Valdez won't be the one let go and no cornerback will be cut.
Jason Harmon · Roster Spot Calls · Max Brosmer · Miss 0
Harmon expects the Vikings' quarterback room to stay intact while Kyler Murray is hurt, and predicts Max Brosmer will be released and re-signed to the practice squad since Minnesota won't carry four QBs.
Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.
Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.