LaVar ArringtonSep 4, 2025
Arrington gave AFC division finishing orders without records: Bengals over Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cleveland; Buffalo winning the East by a long shot with Miami second, the Jets third and New England last; Houston winning the South ahead of Jacksonville, Tennessee and Indianapolis; and the Chargers winning the West over Kansas City, Denver and Las Vegas.
Said on air or in an interview · 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)Hear the original
What LaVar Arrington said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI got the Texans winning it... I think that the Chargers will be number one and Case will be number two.
- Where it was said
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)
- The episode
- Hour 1: Jonas, Brady & LaVar – AFC PREDICTIONS
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidSep 4, 2025
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
- 1Los Angeles Chargers to win the division“I think that the Chargers will be number one and Case will be number two.”
- 2Houston Texans to win the division“So I got the Texans winning it.”
- 3Cincinnati Bengals to win the division“I do have Cincinnati a top of the AFC North.”
- 4Buffalo Bills to win the division“that means that Buffalo is going to win the AFC East, and I think it will be by a long shot”
- 5Power Rankings“I think that the Chargers will be number one and Case will be number two... Outside of the lonely number four Las Vegas Raiders”
- 6Power Rankings“I have New England at the bottom, all the way at the bottom... the New York Jets won't be far off from them... the runner up are the Fins. Yeah, the Miami Dolphins. I got the mat number two, and that means that Buffalo is going to win the AFC East”
- 7Power Rankings“I got the Texans winning it... I put the Jags at too... But I got Tennessee at three and I got Indy at four.”
- 8Power Rankings“I got them one, Baltimore two, Pittsburgh rounding it out at three. And yes, the Cleveland Brown's kicking the can at four”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers to win the division1 | Division Winners | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Houston Texans to win the division2 | Division Winners | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals to win the division3 | Division Winners | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Buffalo Bills to win the division4 | Division Winners | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| “I think that the Chargers will be number one and Case will be…”5 | Power Rankings | — | 75 | 75 | 0 | |
| “I have New England at the bottom, all the way at the bottom...…”6 | Power Rankings | — | 40 | 40 | 0 | |
| “I got the Texans winning it... I put the Jags at too... But I…”7 | Power Rankings | — | 80 | 70 | +20 | |
| “I got them one, Baltimore two, Pittsburgh rounding it out at…”8 | Power Rankings | — | 60 | 90 | −60 | |
| 8 calls · 1 hit · 3 close calls · 4 misses · all settled | 31.9 | 34.4 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive8 checkable claims — 4 division winners and 4 power rankings — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 31.9 out of 100, against 34.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Division WinnersLos Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers to win the division
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
2Division WinnersHouston Texans
Houston Texans to win the division
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
3Division WinnersCincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals to win the division
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
4Division WinnersBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to win the division
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
5Power RankingsKansas City Chiefs
“I think that the Chargers will be number one and Case will be number two... Outside of the lonely number four Las Vegas Raiders”
VerdictClose75Close · naive 7575this call−75a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 75
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I have New England at the bottom, all the way at the bottom... the New York Jets won't be far off from them... the runner up are the Fins. Yeah, the Miami Dolphins. I got the mat number two, and that means that Buffalo is going to win the AFC East”
VerdictClose40Close · naive 4040this call−40a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 40
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I got the Texans winning it... I put the Jags at too... But I got Tennessee at three and I got Indy at four.”
VerdictHit80Hit · naive 7080this call−70a naive guess=10better than naive×2difficulty=+20skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 20
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 70
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I got them one, Baltimore two, Pittsburgh rounding it out at three. And yes, the Cleveland Brown's kicking the can at four”
VerdictClose60Close · naive 9060this call−90a naive guess=−30worse than naive×2difficulty=−60skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −60
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 90
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 8 settled calls, each counted once
31.9naive 34.4
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Daniel DiBerardinis · Division Winners · Atlanta Falcons · Miss 0
Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. They also give a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · New York Giants · Miss 0
Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. They also expect Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and they float the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · Baltimore Ravens · Miss 0
Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. They also name the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.Rich Eisen · Division Winners · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. They also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.Rich Eisen · Division Winners · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Eisen called the 49ers-as-NFC-favorites take an overreaction, picked the Jaguars to beat the Titans and win their division, leaned Ravens over the Steelers in the Week 18 Sunday night game, expects the Bills to beat the Jets even without Josh Allen, sees the Chargers as the AFC's seventh seed, agreed Tyler Shough could win Offensive Rookie of the Year with a good Saints 2026, said Malik Willis will be a starter somewhere next season, and insisted Detroit goes into 2026 with Goff.