Rich Eisen· Dec 29, 2025
Eisen called the 49ers-as-NFC-favorites take an overreaction, picked the Jaguars to beat the Titans and win their division, leaned Ravens over the Steelers in the Week 18 Sunday night game, expects the Bills to beat the Jets even without Josh Allen, sees the Chargers as the AFC's seventh seed, agreed Tyler Shough could win Offensive Rookie of the Year with a good Saints 2026, said Malik Willis will be a starter somewhere next season, and insisted Detroit goes into 2026 with Goff.
“I think the Jaguars will beat the Titans at home and win their division”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
10 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 2 depth chart calls, 2 season win totals, 1 award pick, 1 division winner and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 10 have settled, averaging 73.2 out of 100, against 74 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensDec 29, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to beat Steelers
“Who are you picking? In this one? ... I'm my early thoughts would be the Ravens.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-111 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 24-26
- skill:
- -111
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsDec 29, 2025
Buffalo Bills to beat Jets
“because I think the Bills, even without Josh Allen, are gonna beat the Jets in their final home game”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 8-35
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsDec 29, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Titans
“because I think the Jaguars will beat the Titans at home and win their division”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 7-41
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Division WinnersJacksonville JaguarsDec 29, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
“I think the Jaguars will beat the Titans at home and win their division and doesn't matter what Houston does against Indianapolis week 18”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+111 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 111
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- won the division:
- yes
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldLos Angeles ChargersDec 29, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to take the top seed
“I I think they're gonna wind up maybe being the seventh seed in the AFC”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- checked as:
- seeds 5–7 visit a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
- actual tier:
- visitor
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (visitor)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 7
- claimed tier:
- visitor
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Season Win TotalsNew Orleans SaintsDec 29, 2025
New Orleans Saints to finish with 9 wins
“having him over five hundred next season is a tall order ... So I'll I'll say this is not an overreaction right now ... I look at this Saints team as having a a nice 2026.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 85-49.95 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NO
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- -49.95
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 85
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Award PicksTyler ShoughNew Orleans SaintsDec 29, 2025
Tyler Shough to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“Is is 100% in play. ... So I'll I'll say this is not an overreaction right now. Certainly, when you could see, how Shuck has performed”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tyler Shough
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Depth Chart CallsJared GoffDetroit LionsDec 29, 2025
Jared Goff to be 1st on the depth chart
“They're gonna go into 2026 with golf 100%.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- DET
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jared Goff
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Depth Chart CallsMalik WillisDec 29, 2025
Malik Willis to be 1st on the depth chart
“He's gonna be starting somewhere next year. I think that's, without a doubt.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-9.25 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- GB
- skill:
- -9.25
- player:
- Malik Willis
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Season Win TotalsMinnesota VikingsDec 29, 2025
Minnesota Vikings to finish with 9 wins
“The Vikings might finish above 500.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 55+49.95 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- MIN
- naive:
- 11.25
- skill:
- 49.95
- what happened:
- 9
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 55
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesMiss · 0Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.