Jake Ciely#20 of 87 NFL pundits · Feb 21, 2026
Seely gives his own early 2026 running back board — Bijan and Gibbs on top, McCaffrey third (seventh overall), Kyren Williams tenth, Jeanty 11th and Chase Brown 12th — while ranking Skattebo, Dowdle, Pollard, Hubbard and Tucker below consensus. He also insists Kyren Williams remains a top-ten back, expects Skattebo to lead the Giants backfield and expects Rico Dowdle to leave Carolina.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Jake Ciely said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI am one hundred percent in agreement that Kyle Williams still deserves to be a top ten running back until further notice.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - 2026 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings and Tiers (Ep. 1967)
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidFeb 21
- GradedAug 5–7
- 1Fantasy Rankings“So I have Bejeon and Gibbs, Tier, McCaffrey, Taylor, a Chan, Cook, Hampton, Berkley, Henry... ECR is sixteen, but you have him at ten [Kyren]... you have him a little lower. You have an eleven [Jeanty]... you've got at RB twelve [Chase Brown]... Jake, you've got him a twenty six [Skattebo]... you've got him at thirty three [Dowdle]... you have Tony Pollard here at thirty eight... Chewba Hubbard ECR thirty two. You've got him all the way forty two... he's ECR sixty one, but you've got him at fifty five [Sean Tucker]”
- 2Cam Skattebo to be 1st on the depth chart“He will be the lead Joe... and will be the lead next year.”
- 3Kyren Williams to finish top 10 at his position, by fantasy points“I am one hundred percent in agreement that Kyle Williams still deserves to be a top ten running back until further notice.”
- 4Rico Dowdle to move“really what it comes down to, Daddle's leaving. He's not going back to the Panthers.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| “So I have Bejeon and Gibbs, Tier, McCaffrey, Taylor, a Chan,…”1 | Fantasy Rankings | — | 93.26 | 50 | +43.26 | |
| Cam Skattebo to be 1st on the depth chart2 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 3 | 83.33 | 91.67 | −8.33 | |
| Kyren Williams to finish top 10 at his position, by fantasy points3 | Positional Finishes | Finished #8 | 83.33 | 83.33 | 0 | |
| Rico Dowdle to move4 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 4 calls · 3 hits · 1 waiting | 86.6 | 75 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 1 depth chart call, 1 fantasy ranking, 1 positional finish and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 86.6 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
“So I have Bejeon and Gibbs, Tier, McCaffrey, Taylor, a Chan, Cook, Hampton, Berkley, Henry... ECR is sixteen, but you have him at ten [Kyren]... you have him a little lower. You have an eleven [Jeanty]... you've got at RB twelve [Chase Brown]... Jake, you've got him a twenty six [Skattebo]... you've got him at thirty three [Dowdle]... you have Tony Pollard here at thirty eight... Chewba Hubbard ECR thirty two. You've got him all the way forty two... he's ECR sixty one, but you've got him at fifty five [Sean Tucker]”
VerdictHit93.26Hit · naive 5093.26this call−50a naive guess=43.26better than naive×1difficulty=+43.26skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 43.26
- placed:
- 17
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 17
- accuracy:
- 93.26
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- RB 17: 93.26
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 0
2Depth Chart CallsCam SkatteboNew York Giants
Cam Skattebo to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 3called No. 1 · by rushing yards83.33Hit · naive 91.6783.33this call−91.67a naive guess=−8.34worse than naive×1difficulty=−8.33skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- −8.33
- player:
- Cam Skattebo
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Positional FinishesKyren WilliamsLos Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams to finish top 10 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #8called #10 · by fantasy points83.33Hit · naive 83.3383.33this call−83.33a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Kyren Williams
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 6
- actual finish:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 10
4Trade and Signing CallsRico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle to move
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
86.6naive 75
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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Dubin predicted final scores for seven Week 10 games, taking the Giants over the Commanders, the Lions, Chiefs, Packers, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens to win their respective matchups.
More depth chart calls
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Previewing Week 9 running game matchups, Bodiford expects Jacksonville to win lopsidedly over a depleted Baltimore team, with Bhayshul Tuten sitting out and Chris Rodriguez taking over as lead back, while Joe Fagnano starts at quarterback for the Ravens. They also view Broncos rookie Jonah Coleman as an RB2 going forward.