Peter Schrager· Jan 7, 2025
Schrager ranked the AFC wild card teams by likelihood of a January run — Chargers first, Broncos second, Steelers third — and predicted the Chargers beat the Texans while the Ravens beat the Steelers. He also stood by his preseason Packers-to-the-Super-Bowl pick and his Chiefs Super Bowl winner pick, and forecast a roughly 16-13 Ravens win.
“I think the Chargers are the most likely to go on a run based on the performance we have seen from Justin Herbert of late.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
7 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks, 2 power rankings, 1 conference champion, 1 score prediction and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 49.8 out of 100, against 63.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Score PredictionsBaltimore RavensJan 7, 2025
Baltimore Ravens 16 — Steelers 13
“The final score is gonna be something like sixteen to thirteen, and everyone assumes it's gonna be the Ravens.”
Close · 74Scored 73.81a naive guess scored 72.09+1.72 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 14-28
- skill:
- 1.72
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 73.81
- baseline:
- 72.09
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 14
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- naive home margin:
- 2.28
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensJan 7, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to beat Steelers
“They've got a tough one this week. Obviously they're going into Baltimore. I don't see them winning that game.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 14-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Conference ChampionsGreen Bay PackersJan 7, 2025
Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl
“I'm gonna double down. Packers to the super Bowl.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Power RankingsJan 7, 2025
“So I go Chargers, Broncos, and then the Steelers.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles ChargersJan 7, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Texans
“the Chargers, I think will beat the Texans”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 12-32
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Power RankingsJan 7, 2025
“I think the Packers, Vikings, and then Commanders. If you're asking me to rank the three of the NFC wildcard teams”
Miss · 25Scored 25a naive guess scored 25+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Super Bowl PicksKansas City ChiefsJan 7, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
“I am not backing away from my super Bowl pick is usually pretty good. I got the Chiefs winning it all this year.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- champion:
- PHI
- runner up:
- KC
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.