Peter Schrager#19 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 7, 2025

Schrager ranked the AFC wild card teams by likelihood of a January run — Chargers first, Broncos second, Steelers third — and predicted the Chargers beat the Texans while the Ravens beat the Steelers. They also stood by their preseason Packers-to-the-Super-Bowl pick and their Chiefs Super Bowl winner pick, and forecast a roughly 16-13 Ravens win.

Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 7calls landed2 hits · 2 close calls · 3 misses · all settled

49.8Average accuracyout of 100, across 7 calls

63.9A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

7 of 7Settlednone still waiting

#19Peter Schrager’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Peter Schrager said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I think the Chargers are the most likely to go on a run based on the performance we have seen from Justin Herbert of late.

Peter Schrager, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Move the Sticks (podcast)
The episode: GMFB Tuesday Hour 1: Playoff underdogs! Reviewing Preseason Predictions
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidJan 7, 2025
GradedAug 7–17, 2026

1Baltimore Ravens 16 — Steelers 13“The final score is gonna be something like sixteen to thirteen, and everyone assumes it's gonna be the Ravens.”
2Baltimore Ravens to beat Steelers“They've got a tough one this week. Obviously they're going into Baltimore. I don't see them winning that game.”
3Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl“I'm gonna double down. Packers to the super Bowl.”
4Power Rankings“So I go Chargers, Broncos, and then the Steelers.”
5Los Angeles Chargers to beat Texans“the Chargers, I think will beat the Texans”
6Power Rankings“I think the Packers, Vikings, and then Commanders. If you're asking me to rank the three of the NFC wildcard teams”
7Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl“I am not backing away from my super Bowl pick is usually pretty good. I got the Chiefs winning it all this year.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Baltimore Ravens 16 — Steelers 13¹	Score Predictions	—	73.81	72.09	+1.72
Baltimore Ravens to beat Steelers²	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	100	0
Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl³	Conference Champions	PHI and KC won	0	100	−100
“So I go Chargers, Broncos, and then the Steelers.”⁴	Power Rankings	—	100	0	+100
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Texans⁵	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−100
“I think the Packers, Vikings, and then Commanders. If you're…”⁶	Power Rankings	—	25	25	0
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl⁷	Super Bowl Picks	PHI won it	50	50	0
7 calls · 2 hits · 2 close calls · 3 misses · all settled			49.8	63.9

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

7 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks, 2 power rankings, 1 conference champion, 1 score prediction and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 7 have settled, averaging 49.8 out of 100, against 63.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Score Predictions Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens 16 — Steelers 13
VerdictClose
73.81Close · naive 72.09
73.81this call72.09a naive guess1.72better than naive1difficulty+1.72skill
Closing line (Jan 11): Ravens by 9.5, total 44.5 · this 16–13 calls a closer game (Ravens by 3) and fewer points (29).
How this was scored
score:
14-28
skill:
1.72
they picked:
BAL
season:
2024
accuracy:
73.81
baseline:
72.09
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
14
weeks left when called:
0
naive home margin:
2.28
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens to beat Steelers
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
Closing line (Jan 11): Ravens by 9.5 · favorite pick, Ravens about 4 in 5 (80%).
How this was scored
won:
BAL
score:
14-28
skill:
0
they picked:
BAL
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
BAL
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
3Conference Champions Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI and KC wonpicked GB
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
How this was scored
skill:
−100
they picked:
GB
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
champions:
PHI, KC
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
4Power Rankings
“So I go Chargers, Broncos, and then the Steelers.”
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
skill:
100
method:
spearman
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
3
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
5Game Outcome Picks Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Texans
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
Closing line (Jan 11): Chargers by 3 · favorite pick, Chargers 59%.
How this was scored
won:
HOU
score:
12-32
skill:
−100
they picked:
LAC
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
6Power Rankings
“I think the Packers, Vikings, and then Commanders. If you're asking me to rank the three of the NFC wildcard teams”
VerdictMiss
25Miss · naive 25
25this call25a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
spearman
season:
2024
accuracy:
25
baseline:
25
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
3
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
7Super Bowl Picks Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI won itpicked KC
50Close · naive 50
50this call50a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
KC
season:
2024
accuracy:
50
baseline:
50
champion:
PHI
runner up:
KC
the naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
49.8naive 63.9

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.
Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
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More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.