Peter Schrager

draft:

2026

naive:

naming one of the 36 at random averages 11.45

skill:

59.26

player:

Jordyn Tyson

season:

2026

zero credit this far off:

credit halves every two places

accuracy:

70.71

baseline:

11.45

position:

wide receiver

class size:

36

difficulty:

1

weeks in the season:

18

actual order:

2

predicted order:

1

weeks left when called:

0

of:

34

drill:

forty time

naive:

the middle of the pool (place 18)

scope:

WRs

skill:

100

player:

Brenen Thompson

result:

4.26

season:

2025

combine year:

2026

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

difficulty:

1

weeks in the season:

18

actual place:

1

claimed place:

1

weeks left when called:

0

Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.

skill:

200

player:

Trey Hendrickson

season:

2026

claimed:

he leaves

was with:

CIN

accuracy:

100

baseline:

0

reported:

signed → BAL

settled by:

a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)

difficulty:

2

the naive guess:

he stays where he is

weeks in the season:

18

weeks left when called:

18

club:

MIN

skill:

16.67

player:

J.J. McCarthy

season:

2025

accuracy:

100

baseline:

91.67

position:

QB

naive slot:

2

actual slot:

1

difficulty:

2

measured by:

passing yards

the naive guess:

no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent

weeks in the season:

18

predicted slot:

1

weeks left when called:

18

draft:

2025

naive:

naming one of the 14 at random averages 24.2

skill:

75.8

player:

Cam Ward

season:

2025

zero credit this far off:

credit halves every two places

accuracy:

100

baseline:

24.2

position:

quarterback

class size:

14

difficulty:

1

weeks in the season:

18

actual order:

1

predicted order:

1

weeks left when called:

0

draft:

2025

naive:

a shuffled mock scores 50

player:

Shedeur Sanders

season:

2025

zero credit this far off:

32

accuracy:

0.78

baseline:

50

actual pick:

144

difficulty:

1

weeks in the season:

18

pick accuracy:

0.78

predicted pick:

first round pick (picks 1–32)

weeks left when called:

0

mock ordering score:

only one pick — no order to score

draft:

2025

naive:

a shuffled mock scores 50

skill:

50

player:

Cam Ward

season:

2025

zero credit this far off:

32

accuracy:

100

baseline:

50

actual pick:

1

difficulty:

1

weeks in the season:

18

pick accuracy:

100

predicted pick:

1

weeks left when called:

0

mock ordering score:

100