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Connor LivesayJan 10, 2024

Livesay ranks the top five wide receivers who could reach 2024 NFL free agency, with Michael Pittman Jr. first and Tee Higgins second, followed by Mike Evans, Calvin Ridley and Noah Brown.

Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original

60Close · out of 100
Top Player ListsThe callsettled
50A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
60This callout of 100
+10Skillafter difficulty

What Connor Livesay said

The top two free agent wide receivers this offseason are hard to pick between.
Connor Livesay’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was published
The 33rd Team
The piece
2024 NFL Free Agency: Ranking Top 5 Wide Receivers | The 33rd Team

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.

  1. SaidJan 10, 2024
  2. GradedAug 5, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 60 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Top Player Lists

    “Today, we will rank the top five wide receivers who could hit free agency this offseason. Top 5 Free-Agent WRs: 5. Noah Brown ... 4. Calvin Ridley ... 3. Mike Evans ... 2. Tee Higgins ... 1. Michael Pittman Jr.”

    VerdictClose
    60Close · naive 50
    60this call50a naive guess10better than naive1difficulty+10skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    a coin-flip ordering scores 50
    skill:
    10
    placed:
    5
    season:
    2023
    players:
    5
    accuracy:
    60
    baseline:
    50
    by position:
    WR 5: 60
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    could not place:
    0
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

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