Nick Wright· Jan 17, 2026
Nick trusts Josh Allen over the Broncos defense, picks the Bills to win outright in Denver (Bills +1.5 as his lock), picks the Patriots to beat the Texans by more than three, likes the 49ers to keep it close but not win, and predicts the Rams blow out the Bears roughly 42-28 with Stafford throwing about five TDs.
“I think Josh Allen's about to dog walk them.”
said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast) · read the original →
6 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 1 player season number, 1 score prediction and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 45.6 out of 100, against 66.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksJan 17, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to beat Niners
“Niners plus seven. I don't think the Niners are gonna win, but I also think that they are going to be able to keep it close.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 6-41
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Matthew Stafford to record 5 passing tds
“I think Stafford could have five touchdown passes.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 16.82
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 46
- player:
- Matthew Stafford
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 5
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- 20
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsJan 17, 2026
Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos
“Bills Bills are the better team... I think Josh Allen's about to dog walk them. Bills plus one and a half.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 30-33
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Score PredictionsLos Angeles RamsJan 17, 2026
Los Angeles Rams 42 — Bears 28
“I think the Rams are gonna score 40 points... This feels to me like 42 to 28. So I will take the Rams minus four and a half.”
Close · 74Scored 73.81a naive guess scored 47.69+26.12 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 26.12
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 73.81
- baseline:
- 47.69
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- naive home margin:
- 2.03
- predicted margin:
- 14
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsJan 17, 2026
New England Patriots to beat Texans
“But the right pick is Patriots minus three.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 16-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Top Player ListsJan 17, 2026
“who do I trust, you know, in the fourth quarter of a playoff game... my list would be Patrick one, Stafford two, Allen three.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-50 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- -50
- placed:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 3
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 3: 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 31Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.