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Nick Wright#49 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 17, 2026

Nick trusts Josh Allen over the Broncos defense, picks the Bills to win outright in Denver (Bills +1.5 as their lock), picks the Patriots to beat the Texans by more than three, likes the 49ers to keep it close but not win, and predicts the Rams blow out the Bears roughly 42-28 with Stafford throwing about five TDs.

Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 5calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · 3 misses · all settled
34.8Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
59.5A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5 of 5Settlednone still waiting
#49Nick Wright’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Nick Wright said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I think Josh Allen's about to dog walk them.
Nick Wright, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
First Things First (podcast)
The episode
Divisional Round preview, Most to Gain & Lose, Mahomes comeback, Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidJan 16
  2. GradedAug 13–17
  1. 1Seattle Seahawks to beat Niners“Niners plus seven. I don't think the Niners are gonna win, but I also think that they are going to be able to keep it close.”
  2. 2Matthew Stafford to record 5 passing tds“I think Stafford could have five touchdown passes.”
  3. 3Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos“Bills Bills are the better team... I think Josh Allen's about to dog walk them. Bills plus one and a half.”
  4. 4Los Angeles Rams 42 — Bears 28“I think the Rams are gonna score 40 points... This feels to me like 42 to 28. So I will take the Rams minus four and a half.”
  5. 5Top Player Lists“who do I trust, you know, in the fourth quarter of a playoff game... my list would be Patrick one, Stafford two, Allen three.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Seattle Seahawks to beat Niners1Game Outcome Picks—1001000
Matthew Stafford to record 5 passing tds2Player Season Numbers46000
Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos3Game Outcome Picks—0100−100
Los Angeles Rams 42 — Bears 284Score Predictions—73.8147.69+26.12
“who do I trust, you know, in the fourth quarter of a playoff…”5Top Player Lists—050−50
5 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 3 misses · all settled34.859.5

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks, 1 player season number, 1 score prediction and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 34.8 out of 100, against 59.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks to beat Niners

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Jan 17): Seahawks by 6.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks 72%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    6-41
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Player Season NumbersMatthew StaffordLos Angeles Rams

    Matthew Stafford to record 5 passing tds

    What happened46called 5
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    16.82
    skill:
    0
    what happened:
    46
    player:
    Matthew Stafford
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    5
    statistic:
    passing_tds
    difficulty:
    1
    last season:
    20
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    position average:
    13.64
    zero at percent out:
    50
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill

    Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    −100
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Score PredictionsLos Angeles Rams

    Los Angeles Rams 42 — Bears 28

    VerdictClose
    73.81Close · naive 47.69
    73.81this call47.69a naive guess26.12better than naive1difficulty+26.12skill

    Closing line (Jan 18): Rams by 3.5, total 49.5 · this 42–28 calls a bigger Rams win (by 14) and more points (70). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    score:
    20-17
    skill:
    26.12
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    73.81
    baseline:
    47.69
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    0
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    14
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Top Player Lists

    “who do I trust, you know, in the fourth quarter of a playoff game... my list would be Patrick one, Stafford two, Allen three.”

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 50
    0this call50a naive guess−50worse than naive1difficulty−50skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    a coin-flip ordering scores 50
    skill:
    −50
    placed:
    3
    season:
    2025
    players:
    3
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    by position:
    QB 3: 0
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    could not place:
    0
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  6. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once

    34.8naive 59.5

Who this take is about

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