John GreenSep 26, 2026

Green expects the Bills to place second-year defensive lineman T.J. Sanders on injured reserve while Phidarian Mathis returns from suspension to the active roster, and argues Sanders is already trending toward bust status relative to their No. 41 overall selection.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

1 of 1calls landed1 hit · 2 waiting

100Average accuracyout of 100, across 1 call

100A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

1 of 3Settled2 still waiting

2Waitingnot graded yet

What John Green said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

So, an upcoming stay on injured reserve with another fellow 2025 draftee, defensive back Jordan Hancock, appears likely for Sanders in the near future

John Green, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: Sports Illustrated
The piece: Buffalo Bills' Next Roster Move Likely Involves 2025 Second-Round Draft Pick
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 26
GradedOct 13

1Phidarian Mathis to make the roster“It'll give the team at least four more weeks to figure things out with their former second-rounder from last year's draft class, while allowing Mathis a chance to contribute right away in the coming weeks.”
2T.J. Sanders — “placed on injured reserve”“So, an upcoming stay on injured reserve with another fellow 2025 draftee, defensive back Jordan Hancock, appears likely for Sanders in the near future... For that reason, it seems like a perfect swap to put Sanders on injured reserve instead.”
3T.J. Sanders to disappoint at the next level“The results—or rather lack thereof—speak volumes, and they show that Sanders is flirting with near bust status early on in his professional career.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Phidarian Mathis to make the roster¹	Roster Spot Calls	1 week on a 53	100	100	0
T.J. Sanders — “placed on injured reserve”²	Roster Spot Calls	—	—	—	—
T.J. Sanders to disappoint at the next level³	Draft Bust Calls	—	—	—	—
3 calls · 1 hit · 2 waiting			100	100

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 roster spot calls and 1 draft bust call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

1 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Roster Spot Calls Phidarian Mathis Buffalo Bills
Phidarian Mathis to make the roster
What happened1 week on a 53
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill
How this was scored
club:
BUF
skill:
0
player:
Phidarian Mathis
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
1.89
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
1
weeks left when called:
16
first week on the53:
5
weeks on the practice squad:
1
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2Roster Spot Calls T.J. Sanders Buffalo Bills
T.J. Sanders — “placed on injured reserve”
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
3Draft Bust Calls T.J. Sanders Buffalo Bills
T.J. Sanders to disappoint at the next level
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?