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Jared Dubin#60 of 87 NFL pundits · Nov 9, 2026

Dubin picked Buffalo to win a low-scoring Monday night game in Minnesota, 20-14.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

74Close · out of 100
Bills 23–6What happenedcalled Bills by 6 · won by 17
9.52A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
73.81This callout of 100
#60Jared Dubin’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Jared Dubin said

Jared Dubin's pick: Bills 20-14 over Vikings
Our reading: Buffalo Bills 20 — Vikings 14
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Bills-Vikings picks for Monday night, plus NFL Week 9 losers and Jaguars make trade for Pro Bowl safety
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidNov 9
  2. PlayedNov 9
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 73.8 out of 100, against 9.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills 20 — Vikings 14

    What happenedBills 23–6called Bills by 6 · won by 17
    73.81Close · naive 9.52
    73.81this call9.52a naive guess64.29better than naive1.56difficulty+100.29skill

    Closing line (Nov 9): Bills by 3, total 45.5 · this 20–14 calls a bigger Bills win (by 6) and fewer points (34).

    How this was scored
    score:
    23-6
    skill:
    100.29
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    73.81
    baseline:
    9.52
    difficulty:
    1.56
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    10
    naive home margin:
    0
    predicted margin:
    6
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

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