Gene ChamberlainAug 17, 2026

Chamberlain argues the Bears will keep only three or four running backs, and that Roschon Johnson has effectively locked up a roster spot as the group's only true power back, with Ahmed, Brown and Bennett unlikely to unseat them.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

100Hit · out of 100

3 weeks on a 53What happenedsettled

100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge

100This callout of 100

0Skillafter difficulty

What Gene Chamberlain said

Ahmed, Brown and Bennett should have a long way to go to take a roster spot from Roschon Johnson.

Our reading: Roschon Johnson to make the roster

Where it was published: Sports Illustrated
The piece: Ben Johnson Sets the Bar That Could Decide the Bears Backup Running Back Job
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidAug 17
GradedSep 25

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Roster Spot Calls Roschon Johnson Chicago Bears
Roschon Johnson to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
0
player:
Roschon Johnson
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
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