Nate Tice#17 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 8, 2026

Tice picked the Seahawks, Patriots, Rams, Vikings, Falcons and Jaguars in Week 5, and their hail Mary was the Texans beating the Titans by 17 or more points.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Football 301 with Nate Tice (podcast)Hear the original

4 of 7calls landed4 hits · 3 misses · 2 waiting

57.1Average accuracyout of 100, across 7 calls

28.6A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

7Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#17Nate Tice’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Nate Tice said

My hail Mary is the Texans win by 17 or more.

Nate Tice, the lead quote

Where it was said: Football 301 with Nate Tice (podcast)
The episode: NFL Week 5 preview & bold predictions: Can Stafford get right vs. Bills? 49ers-Seahawks hoss fight
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 8
PlayedOct 11–12
GradedOct 11–13

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Misses	Waiting
Game Outcome Picks	4	3	0
Availability Calls	0	0	2
All	4	3	2

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

9 checkable claims — 7 game outcome picks and 2 availability calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

7 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 57.1 out of 100, against 28.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game Outcome Picks4 hits · 3 missesShow ▸

Los Angeles Rams to beat Bills
“So I am going with the Rams, and I think it's... Oh, man. I... My coward way is like, oh, it's my field goal or four points”
Los Angeles Rams
Bills 37–34Bills at Rams
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.78 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 12): Rams by 3.5 · favorite pick, Rams 62%.
How this was scored
won:
BUF
score:
37-34
skill:
0
they picked:
LAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
LAR
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Atlanta Falcons to beat Ravens
“I'm gonna go Falcons win, Ravens cover.”
Atlanta Falcons
Ravens 30–23Ravens at Falcons
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.78 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Falcons by 3.5 · favorite pick, Falcons 61%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
How this was scored
won:
BAL
score:
30-23
skill:
0
they picked:
ATL
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
ATL
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks to beat 49ers
“I think the Seahawks win this one, especially being at home, you know, tough place to play.”
Seattle Seahawks
49ers 32–2949ers at Seahawks
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.78 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Seahawks by 3 · favorite pick, Seahawks 60%.
How this was scored
won:
SF
score:
32-29
skill:
0
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
SEA
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Houston Texans to beat Titans
“My hail Mary is the Texans win by 17 or more... The spread's seven and a half. I still think the Texans are way better than they've indicated so far.”
Houston Texans
Texans 26–3Texans at Titans
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.78 difficulty = +178 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Texans by 6.5 · favorite pick, Texans about 3 in 4 (73%).
How this was scored
won:
HOU
score:
26-3
skill:
178
they picked:
HOU
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
TEN
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
New England Patriots to beat Raiders
“Patriots win Raider Raiders cover. Think this is gonna be a field goal type game.”
New England Patriots
Patriots 45–17Raiders at Patriots
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.78 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Patriots by 3.5 · favorite pick, Patriots 62%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
How this was scored
won:
NE
score:
17-45
skill:
0
they picked:
NE
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Minnesota Vikings to beat Saints
“A lot of throwaways. He's not taking sacks, but it's throwaways... I'm going with the backings here.”
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings 23–13Vikings at Saints
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.78 difficulty = +178 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Vikings by 2.5 · favorite pick, Vikings 56%.
How this was scored
won:
MIN
score:
23-13
skill:
178
they picked:
MIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
NO
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Eagles
“We both are going with the jacks here, so easy prediction.”
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars 19–17Eagles at Jaguars
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.78 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Jaguars by 7.5 · favorite pick, Jaguars about 3 in 4 (76%).
How this was scored
won:
JAX
score:
17-19
skill:
0
they picked:
JAX
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
JAX
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?

Availability Calls2 waitingShow ▸

“and, Parkinson should be playing on Monday (Week 5, Monday night, Bills at Rams)”
Colby Parkinson Los Angeles Rams
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
“Lamar Jackson has a bum ankle right now, still doesn't practice, so likely be Snoop Huntley. (Week 5, Ravens at Falcons)”
Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Jason Harmon · Roster Spot Calls · Max Brosmer · Miss 0
Harmon expects the Vikings' quarterback room to stay intact while Kyler Murray is hurt, and predicts Max Brosmer will be released and re-signed to the practice squad since Minnesota won't carry four QBs.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Lazarczyk expects the Raiders to be sellers before the trade deadline, suggesting Kirk Cousins could be dealt back to the Vikings and that benched interior lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson is a prime candidate to be traded somewhere.
Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.
Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be taken No. 1 overall by the Raiders and to be thrown into the starting lineup immediately, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta within weeks.
Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be the No. 1 overall pick and land with the Raiders, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta.

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.