Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Tyler Sullivan· Oct 8, 2026

Sullivan flags five Week 5 favorites he thinks are vulnerable, effectively picking the Raiders, Packers, Browns, Saints and Cardinals to pull off upsets.

“The Detroit Lions simply cannot be trusted as a road favorite with their current defense.”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 20 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

The games in this take

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Game Outcome PicksArizona CardinalsOct 8, 2026

    Arizona Cardinals to beat Detroit Lions

    “The Detroit Lions simply cannot be trusted as a road favorite with their current defense... the Cardinals... have enough playmakers on offense to take advantage of the Lions' poor defense.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DET
    score:
    45-21
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    ARI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    ARI
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    14

    Closing line (Oct 11): Lions by 5.5 · underdog pick, Cardinals 30%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksCleveland BrownsOct 8, 2026

    Cleveland Browns to beat New York Jets

    “What if the Browns are just good?... it's the Jets defense that should be of central focus and possibly the reason for an upset.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-178 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NYJ
    score:
    12-17
    skill:
    −178
    they picked:
    CLE
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NYJ
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    14

    Closing line (Oct 11): Jets by 2.5 · underdog pick, Browns 44%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksNew Orleans SaintsOct 8, 2026

    New Orleans Saints to beat Minnesota Vikings

    “If he can find some success against this Vikings blitz, that could be enough to pull out the win, especially if the Murray-led offense continues to struggle to get off the ground.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    MIN
    score:
    23-13
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NO
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    NO
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    14

    Closing line (Oct 11): Vikings by 2.5 · underdog pick, Saints 44%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersOct 8, 2026

    Green Bay Packers to beat Chicago Bears

    “I think the Packers -- who are admittedly flawed -- could throw the kitchen sink at a Bears team that is still dinged up.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    GB
    score:
    7-31
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    GB
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    14

    Closing line (Oct 11): Bears by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bears 53%, Packers 47%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas RaidersOct 8, 2026

    Las Vegas Raiders to beat New England Patriots

    “this does feel like a possible letdown spot for the Patriots after such a monumental victory... Rather, I expect them to go into Gillette Stadium and make the Patriots sweat.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-178 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    17-45
    skill:
    −178
    they picked:
    LV
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    14

    Closing line (Oct 11): Patriots by 3.5 · underdog pick, Raiders 38%.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these