Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 20, 2025
Eisen picked the Colts as the AFC's top seed, named Jonathan Taylor a top-three MVP finisher, said this season puts Matthew Stafford in the Hall of Fame, kept the NFC North as Detroit's division, and had Tampa Bay as the NFC South playoff team while allowing Carolina could reach 10 wins.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original
What Rich Eisen said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThis is the season that's putting Matthew Stafford in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
- Where it was said
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Week 7: AFC West Heats Up, Dolphins' Implosion, 49ers' QB Conundrum
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 20, 2025
- GradedAug 13–17, 2026
- 1Indianapolis Colts to take the top seed“I'll I'll say, that that this is not an overreaction because I think it's the Colts.”
- 2Detroit Lions to win the division“As for the bears, this is still the lions division to lose as far as I'm concerned.”
- 3Carolina Panthers to finish with 10 wins“but I think I think the Panthers can I can get it? Panthers look good. Get to 10 wins.”
- 4New England Patriots to beat Cleveland“Certainly, you you you should beat the crap out of Cleveland at home.”
- 5Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs“you're you're not gonna get maybe more than one from the South, and it's gonna be the Bucks. So I think the Bucks are in”
- 6Brock Purdy to be 1st on the depth chart“When Brock Purdy is returning, but guess what's gonna happen? He's playing.”
- 7Tua Tagovailoa to be 1st on the depth chart“No. No. No. No. No. Tua is the quarterback... So I I don't believe the Dolphins are gonna have a new quarterback week one next season.”
- 8Jonathan Taylor — top three in MVP voting: top three of MVP voting, if not top two“a running back is gonna be in the top three of MVP voting, if not top two. Mhmm. Jonathan Taylor is that guy.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts to take the top seed1 | Seeding, Byes and Home Field | — | 0 | 100 | −167 | |
| Detroit Lions to win the division2 | Division Winners | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carolina Panthers to finish with 10 wins3 | Season Win Totals | 8 | 60 | 75 | −25.05 | |
| New England Patriots to beat Cleveland4 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs5 | Playoff Picks | Missed the playoffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brock Purdy to be 1st on the depth chart6 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Tua Tagovailoa to be 1st on the depth chart7 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Jonathan Taylor — top three in MVP voting: top three of MVP voting, if not top two8 | Award Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| 8 calls · 3 hits · 1 close call · 3 misses · 1 waiting | 51.4 | 67.9 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive8 checkable claims — 2 depth chart calls, 1 award pick, 1 division winner, 1 game outcome pick, 1 playoff pick, 1 season win total and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
7 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 51.4 out of 100, against 67.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Seeding, Byes and Home FieldIndianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts to take the top seed
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.67difficulty=−167skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −167
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- checked as:
- the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
- actual tier:
- missed the playoffs
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 1
- claimed tier:
- bye
- weeks left when called:
- 12
2Division WinnersDetroit Lions
Detroit Lions to win the division
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.67difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
- won the division:
- no
3Season Win TotalsCarolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers to finish with 10 wins
What happened8called 1060Close · naive 7560this call−75a naive guess=−15worse than naive×1.67difficulty=−25.05skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- CAR
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- −25.05
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 75
- they said:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
4Game Outcome PicksNew England Patriots
New England Patriots to beat Cleveland
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.67difficulty=0skillClosing line (Oct 26): Patriots by 7 · favorite pick, Patriots about 3 in 4 (76%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 13-32
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
5Playoff PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.67difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 12
6Depth Chart CallsBrock PurdySan Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.67difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Brock Purdy
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 12
7Depth Chart CallsTua TagovailoaMiami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.67difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- MIA
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tua Tagovailoa
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 12
8Award PicksJonathan TaylorIndianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor — top three in MVP voting: top three of MVP voting, if not top two
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
51.4naive 67.9
Who this take is about
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