Rich Eisen· Oct 20, 2025
Eisen picked the Colts as the AFC's top seed, named Jonathan Taylor a top-three MVP finisher, said this season puts Matthew Stafford in the Hall of Fame, kept the NFC North as Detroit's division, and had Tampa Bay as the NFC South playoff team while allowing Carolina could reach 10 wins.
“This is the season that's putting Matthew Stafford in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
8 checkable claims — 2 depth chart calls, 1 award pick, 1 division winner, 1 game outcome pick, 1 playoff pick, 1 season win total and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 45 out of 100, against 59.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldIndianapolis ColtsOct 20, 2025
Indianapolis Colts to take the top seed
“I'll I'll say, that that this is not an overreaction because I think it's the Colts.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-167 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -167
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- checked as:
- the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
- actual tier:
- missed the playoffs
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 1
- claimed tier:
- bye
- weeks left when called:
- 12
- Division WinnersDetroit LionsOct 20, 2025
Detroit Lions to win the division
“As for the bears, this is still the lions division to lose as far as I'm concerned.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
- won the division:
- no
- Season Win TotalsCarolina PanthersOct 20, 2025
Carolina Panthers to finish with 10 wins
“but I think I think the Panthers can I can get it? Panthers look good. Get to 10 wins.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-25.05 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CAR
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- -25.05
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsOct 20, 2025
New England Patriots to beat Cleveland
“Certainly, you you you should beat the crap out of Cleveland at home.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 13-32
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
- Playoff PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersOct 20, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“you're you're not gonna get maybe more than one from the South, and it's gonna be the Bucks. So I think the Bucks are in”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 12
- Depth Chart CallsBrock PurdySan Francisco 49ersOct 20, 2025
Brock Purdy to be 1st on the depth chart
“When Brock Purdy is returning, but guess what's gonna happen? He's playing.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Brock Purdy
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 12
- Depth Chart CallsTua TagovailoaMiami DolphinsOct 20, 2025
Tua Tagovailoa to be 1st on the depth chart
“No. No. No. No. No. Tua is the quarterback... So I I don't believe the Dolphins are gonna have a new quarterback week one next season.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- MIA
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tua Tagovailoa
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 12
- Award PicksJonathan TaylorIndianapolis ColtsOct 20, 2025
Jonathan Taylor to win top three in MVP voting
“a running back is gonna be in the top three of MVP voting, if not top two. Mhmm. Jonathan Taylor is that guy.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jonathan Taylor
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 88Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0In his Week 3 waiver column, Fitzmaurice makes several depth-chart calls around injuries: Jonah Coleman leading Denver's backfield, Marcus Mariota taking over in Washington, Michael Penix Jr. starting once healthy, and Malik Washington serving as Miami's top receiver, plus availability expectations for Detroit's injured safeties.
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Hit · 100Fox Sports states that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa will serve as Atlanta's backup quarterback in Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. handling the starting duties against Green Bay.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Aaron JonesHit · 100In previewing the 10 most intriguing fantasy performers of Week 2, Fitzmaurice expects Atlanta's quarterback problems to persist with Tua Tagovailoa unlikely to play and Michael Penix Jr. not ready to return, flags Falcons slot corner Billy Bowman Jr. as a possible Week 2 returnee, and describes Aaron Jones as Minnesota's lead back and Kaelon Black as the clear backup to Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco.
- Matt SeveranceDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The CBS Sports preview backs Tampa Bay to beat Cleveland in the Bucs' Week 2 home opener, and states that Deshaun Watson — not Shedeur Sanders — will be Cleveland's starting quarterback in Week 2.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano reports Watson will start Week 2 at Tampa Bay and suggests there's little reason to expect improvement, raising the possibility Watson's five-year contract never yields more than single-digit wins.
- Bradley LockerDepth Chart Calls · Carson WentzHit · 100PFF's unsigned adjusted power rankings after Week 1 of the 2026 season place the Bills first, the Rams second and the Dolphins last, with notes on quarterback situations in Seattle, Minnesota and Cleveland.