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Cynthia Frelund#45 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 12, 2025

Freeland's model picks Cincinnati to beat Jacksonville by about six at home, New England to win at Miami, and Denver to beat Indianapolis on the strength of its defense; the model also has Minnesota beating Atlanta by three and Pittsburgh beating Seattle by two. They reiterated their Super Bowl pick of the Bills over the Eagles.

Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 6calls landed2 hits · 4 misses · all settled
33.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls
16.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
6 of 6Settlednone still waiting
#45Cynthia Frelund’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Cynthia Frelund said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I think Cincinnati wins by more than three and a half points at home against the Jacks.
Cynthia Frelund, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Around the NFL (podcast)
The episode
Week 2 Picks with Cynthia Frelund
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidSep 12, 2025
  2. GradedAug 5–17, 2026
  1. 1New England Patriots to beat Miami“I think New England wins interesting beats Miami”
  2. 2Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl“Lls over Eagles?”
  3. 3Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Seattle“then I have a two point win in favor of Pittsburgh only”
  4. 4Minnesota Vikings to beat Atlanta“Minnesota is at three and a half. I have Minnesota winning by three”
  5. 5Cincinnati Bengals to beat Jacksonville“I have them winning by six... so I think Cincinnati wins by more than three and a half points at home against the Jacks.”
  6. 6Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl“Lls over Eagles? ... and my super Bowl picks won their first games”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
New England Patriots to beat Miami1Game Outcome Picks—1000+194
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl2Conference ChampionsNE and SEA won000
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Seattle3Game Outcome Picks—000
Minnesota Vikings to beat Atlanta4Game Outcome Picks—000
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Jacksonville5Game Outcome Picks—1001000
Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl6Super Bowl PicksSEA won it000
6 calls · 2 hits · 4 misses · all settled33.316.7

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

6 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 1 conference champion and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 16.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksNew England Patriots

    New England Patriots to beat Miami

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.94difficulty+194skill

    Closing line (Sep 14): Dolphins by 1.5 · a toss-up, Patriots 47%, Dolphins 53%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    33-27
    skill:
    194
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    MIA
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia Eagles

    Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl

    What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked PHI
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE, SEA
    difficulty:
    1.94
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    no
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksPittsburgh Steelers

    Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Seattle

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 14): Steelers by 3.5 · favorite pick, Steelers 63%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    31-17
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    PIT
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    PIT
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksMinnesota Vikings

    Minnesota Vikings to beat Atlanta

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 14): Vikings by 3.5 · favorite pick, Vikings 62%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    ATL
    score:
    22-6
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    MIN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    MIN
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Game Outcome PicksCincinnati Bengals

    Cincinnati Bengals to beat Jacksonville

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 14): Bengals by 3.5 · favorite pick, Bengals 63%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    CIN
    score:
    27-31
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    CIN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    CIN
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Super Bowl PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl

    What happenedSEA won itpicked BUF
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champion:
    SEA
    runner up:
    NE
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?
  7. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once

    33.3naive 16.7

Who this take is about

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