Marcus Mosher· Dec 3, 2024
Mosher's Week 14 power rankings place Detroit first and Jacksonville last, and along the way he calls the Ravens and Broncos playoff-bound, the Seahawks heavy favorites in the NFC West, the Saints eliminated, and the Giants/Jaguars in contention for the No. 1 pick.
“Baltimore is a sure-fire playoff team, but it clearly isn't the same regular-season team we saw last year.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Dec 4, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
6 checkable claims — 2 playoff picks, 1 division winner, 1 power ranking, 1 roster spot call and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 78.8 out of 100, against 41.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersSeattle SeahawksDec 3, 2024
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
“And with the defense starting to come along, they should be the heavy favorites to take the division now.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- won the division:
- no
- Power RankingsDec 3, 2024
“Here are our updated power rankings going into Week 14 of the 2024 season”
Hit · 98Scored 98.15a naive guess scored 67.38+39.39 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 39.39
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 98.15
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Playoff PicksBaltimore RavensDec 3, 2024
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“Baltimore is a sure-fire playoff team, but it clearly isn't the same regular-season team we saw last year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Playoff PicksDenver BroncosDec 3, 2024
Denver Broncos to make the playoffs
“The Denver Broncos are a near-lock to make the postseason”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- skill:
- 128
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Team Draft Slot CallsJacksonville JaguarsDec 3, 2024
Jacksonville Jaguars to pick at number 1
“That means Jacksonville could pick at No. 1 for the third time in five seasons.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 40.26+71.04 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 23 the year before
- skill:
- 71.04
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 40.26
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 5
Christian McCaffrey to make the roster
“They suffered another 20+ point loss and likely lost Christian McCaffrey (PCL) for the season.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Pittsburgh SteelersHit · 100Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called his shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. He also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.