Marcus Mosher#41 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 3, 2024
Mosher's Week 14 power rankings place Detroit first and Jacksonville last, and along the way they call the Ravens and Broncos playoff-bound, the Seahawks heavy favorites in the NFC West, the Saints eliminated, and the Giants/Jaguars in contention for the No. 1 pick.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Marcus Mosher said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromBaltimore is a sure-fire playoff team, but it clearly isn't the same regular-season team we saw last year.
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2024 NFL Week 14 Power Rankings: Eagles Win Vaults Them Into Top 5 | The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived Dec 4, 2024
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidDec 3, 2024
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
- 1Seattle Seahawks to win the division“And with the defense starting to come along, they should be the heavy favorites to take the division now.”
- 2Power Rankings“Here are our updated power rankings going into Week 14 of the 2024 season”
- 3Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs“Baltimore is a sure-fire playoff team, but it clearly isn't the same regular-season team we saw last year.”
- 4Denver Broncos to make the playoffs“The Denver Broncos are a near-lock to make the postseason”
- 5Jacksonville Jaguars to pick at number 1“That means Jacksonville could pick at No. 1 for the third time in five seasons.”
- 6Christian McCaffrey: a roster call with no direction stated“They suffered another 20+ point loss and likely lost Christian McCaffrey (PCL) for the season.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks to win the division1 | Division Winners | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| “Here are our updated power rankings going into Week 14 of the…”2 | Power Rankings | — | 98.15 | 67.38 | +39.39 | |
| Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs3 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Denver Broncos to make the playoffs4 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 0 | +128 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars to pick at number 15 | Team Draft Slot Calls | Picked at 2 | 95.76 | 40.26 | +71.04 | |
| Christian McCaffrey: a roster call with no direction stated6 | Roster Spot Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 6 calls · 4 hits · 1 miss · 1 waiting | 78.8 | 41.5 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive6 checkable claims — 2 playoff picks, 1 division winner, 1 power ranking, 1 roster spot call and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 78.8 out of 100, against 41.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Division WinnersSeattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.28difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- won the division:
- no
“Here are our updated power rankings going into Week 14 of the 2024 season”
VerdictHit98.15Hit · naive 67.3898.15this call−67.38a naive guess=30.77better than naive×1.28difficulty=+39.39skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 39.39
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 98.15
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 5
3Playoff PicksBaltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.28difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 5
Denver Broncos to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.28difficulty=+128skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- skill:
- 128
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 5
5Team Draft Slot CallsJacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to pick at number 1
What happenedPicked at 2called 195.76Hit · naive 40.2695.76this call−40.26a naive guess=55.5better than naive×1.28difficulty=+71.04skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 23 the year before
- skill:
- 71.04
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 40.26
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 5
6Roster Spot CallsChristian McCaffreySan Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey: a roster call with no direction stated
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
78.8naive 41.5
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Breer picks the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in their Week 9 NFC West matchup.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Ross Jackson · Playoff Picks · New Orleans Saints · Miss 0
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Minnesota Vikings · Miss 0
Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Carolina Panthers · Hit 100
Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. They also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Pittsburgh Steelers · Hit 100
Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called their shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. They also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.