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Pete Martuneac· Oct 4, 2026

Martuneac predicts the Bears beat the Jets 30-17 in Week 4, moving to 3-1, with Tyson Bagent starting and the offense scoring early and often.

“Final Prediction: Bears win 30-17”

published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 95.2 out of 100, against 76.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Chicago Bears 30 — New York Jets 17

    “Final Prediction: Bears win 30-17 ... They ought to pick up another win and get to 3-1 on the season”

    Hit · 95Scored 95.24a naive guess scored 76.19+34.86 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    12-23
    skill:
    34.86
    they picked:
    CHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    95.24
    baseline:
    76.19
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    11
    weeks left when called:
    15
    naive home margin:
    1
    predicted margin:
    13

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