JP Acosta#40 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 15, 2026

JP picked the Bills, Seahawks (roughly 17-10), Patriots and Rams in the divisional round, and offered several 2026 draft projections including Ty Simpson as a first-rounder and Jonah Coleman as the class's second running back.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Pushing the Pile (podcast)Hear the original

4 of 6calls landed4 hits · 1 close call · 1 miss · 1 waiting

71.8Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls

56.2A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

6 of 7Settled1 still waiting

#40JP Acosta’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What JP Acosta said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

So I do think the Bills win this game.

JP Acosta, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Pushing the Pile (podcast)
The episode: Giants HIRING John Harbaugh As Head Coach + Preview & Picks For EVERY Divisional Round Game
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidJan 15
GradedAug 14

1Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears“I'm also gonna go Rams. I do think this game is gonna be close.”
2Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos“I worry that the Broncos will try but can't, and that puts Bo Nix into a lot of unfavorable situations. So I do think the Bills win this game.”
3Jonah Coleman to be 2nd running back off the board“I think if I had a, a a RB two behind Jeremiah Love in this class, I think it's Jonah Coleman.”
4Colton Hood to be picked “back half of the first round” (picks 1–32)“I could maybe see a guy like Colton Hood sneaking into the back half of the first round with a good, like, post season circuit.”
5Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“but he's probably going to go in the first round because there is no other quarterback”
6New England Patriots to beat Texans“I sort of feel like the patriots win. Like, I I feel like the patriots win a close one.”
7Monroe Freeling to be picked “round one”“I could see Monroe Freeling sneaking in the round one because teams need a tackle”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears¹	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	0	+100
Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos²	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−100
Jonah Coleman to be 2nd running back off the board³	Position Order Calls	—	50	37.45	+12.55
Colton Hood to be picked “back half of the first round” (picks 1–32)⁴	Mock Draft Picks	Went 37	80.52	50	—
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)⁵	Mock Draft Picks	Went 13	100	50	—
New England Patriots to beat Texans⁶	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	100	0
Monroe Freeling to be picked “round one”⁷	Mock Draft Picks	—	—	—	—
7 calls · 4 hits · 1 close call · 1 miss · 1 waiting			71.8	56.2

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

7 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 3 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

6 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 71.8 out of 100, against 56.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
Closing line (Jan 18): Rams by 3.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 2 in 3 (64%).
How this was scored
won:
LAR
score:
20-17
skill:
100
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
CHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%.
How this was scored
won:
DEN
score:
30-33
skill:
−100
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
DEN
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
3Position Order Calls Jonah Coleman Washington Commanders
Jonah Coleman to be 2nd running back off the board
VerdictClose
50Close · naive 37.45
50this call37.45a naive guess12.55better than naive1difficulty+12.55skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 13 at random averages 37.45
skill:
12.55
player:
Jonah Coleman
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
50
baseline:
37.45
position:
running back
class size:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
4
predicted order:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
4Mock Draft Picks Colton Hood
Colton Hood to be picked “back half of the first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 37
80.52Hit · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Colton Hood
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
80.52
baseline:
50
actual pick:
37
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
80.52
predicted pick:
back half of the first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
5Mock Draft Picks Ty Simpson
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 13
100Hit · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
6Game Outcome Picks New England Patriots
New England Patriots to beat Texans
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
Closing line (Jan 18): Patriots by 3 · favorite pick, Patriots 62%.
How this was scored
won:
NE
score:
16-28
skill:
0
they picked:
NE
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
7Mock Draft Picks Monroe Freeling
Monroe Freeling to be picked “round one”
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
71.8naive 56.2