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JP Acosta· Jan 15, 2026

JP picked the Bills, Seahawks (roughly 17-10), Patriots and Rams in the divisional round, and offered several 2026 draft projections including Ty Simpson as a first-rounder and Jonah Coleman as the class's second running back.

“So I do think the Bills win this game.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Pushing the Pile (podcast) · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 3 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

6 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 71.8 out of 100, against 56.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears

    “I'm also gonna go Rams. I do think this game is gonna be close.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    LAR
    score:
    20-17
    skill:
    100
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos

    “I worry that the Broncos will try but can't, and that puts Bo Nix into a lot of unfavorable situations. So I do think the Bills win this game.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    -100
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Jonah Coleman to be 2nd running back off the board

    “I think if I had a, a a RB two behind Jeremiah Love in this class, I think it's Jonah Coleman.”

    Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 37.45+12.55 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    naming one of the 13 at random averages 37.45
    skill:
    12.55
    player:
    Jonah Coleman
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    37.45
    position:
    running back
    class size:
    13
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    4
    predicted order:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Colton Hood to be picked “back half of the first round” (picks 1–32)

    “I could maybe see a guy like Colton Hood sneaking into the back half of the first round with a good, like, post season circuit.”

    Hit · 81Scored 80.52a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Colton Hood
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    80.52
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    37
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    80.52
    predicted pick:
    back half of the first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    “but he's probably going to go in the first round because there is no other quarterback”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Ty Simpson
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    13
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • New England Patriots to beat Texans

    “I sort of feel like the patriots win. Like, I I feel like the patriots win a close one.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    16-28
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Monroe Freeling to be picked “round one”

    “I could see Monroe Freeling sneaking in the round one because teams need a tackle”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

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