JP Acosta· Jan 15, 2026
JP picked the Bills, Seahawks (roughly 17-10), Patriots and Rams in the divisional round, and offered several 2026 draft projections including Ty Simpson as a first-rounder and Jonah Coleman as the class's second running back.
“So I do think the Bills win this game.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Pushing the Pile (podcast) · read the original →
7 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 3 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
6 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 71.8 out of 100, against 56.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 15, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears
“I'm also gonna go Rams. I do think this game is gonna be close.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsJan 15, 2026
Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos
“I worry that the Broncos will try but can't, and that puts Bo Nix into a lot of unfavorable situations. So I do think the Bills win this game.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 30-33
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Jonah Coleman to be 2nd running back off the board
“I think if I had a, a a RB two behind Jeremiah Love in this class, I think it's Jonah Coleman.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 37.45+12.55 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 13 at random averages 37.45
- skill:
- 12.55
- player:
- Jonah Coleman
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 37.45
- position:
- running back
- class size:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 4
- predicted order:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksColton HoodJan 15, 2026
Colton Hood to be picked “back half of the first round” (picks 1–32)
“I could maybe see a guy like Colton Hood sneaking into the back half of the first round with a good, like, post season circuit.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Colton Hood
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 37
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- back half of the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonJan 15, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“but he's probably going to go in the first round because there is no other quarterback”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsJan 15, 2026
New England Patriots to beat Texans
“I sort of feel like the patriots win. Like, I I feel like the patriots win a close one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 16-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksMonroe FreelingJan 15, 2026
Monroe Freeling to be picked “round one”
“I could see Monroe Freeling sneaking in the round one because teams need a tackle”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Ralph VentreRoster Spot Calls · Christian BenfordMiss · 0Ventre expects Christian Benford's toe injury to sideline him for at least the Week 4 game against New England, and believes the Bills will have to add a cornerback to the 53-man roster this week — likely by moving Benford to injured reserve — with practice squad rookie Kani Walker the most likely player elevated.
- Carmen VitaliGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100In the show's weekly picks segment Vitali took the Broncos over the Rams, the Ravens over the Cowboys in Rio, Tampa at home over Minnesota, the Bills over the Chargers and the Eagles on the road in Chicago. She also agreed that Caleb Williams would be out roughly two to three weeks.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.