Nick Shook#67 of 87 NFL pundits · Jul 21, 2025

Shook lays out the Giants' quarterback pecking order with Russell Wilson starting, Jameis Winston as the veteran backup and Jackson Dart third, predicts Abdul Carter beats out Kayvon Thibodeaux for the Giants' starting edge job, and assumes Tyler Shough wins the Saints' quarterback job.

Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original

5 of 5calls landed5 hits · all settled

90Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

90A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5 of 5Settlednone still waiting

#67Nick Shook’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Nick Shook said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

Russ is gonna win the job because it's gonna be his job. Jameis is gonna be your backup, veteran backup.

Nick Shook, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Around the NFL (podcast)
The episode: The Top 59 (!) Position Battles of NFL Training Camp
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidJul 21, 2025
GradedAug 7–18, 2026

1Abdul Carter to be 1st on the depth chart“I think Carter wins this job, and I think it applies pressure to Thibodeau”
2Tyler Shough to be 1st on the depth chart“I would assume Shuck. Yeah, investments in him.”
3Jaxson Dart to be 3rd on the depth chart“and Dart's gonna be the ooh. I don't know, we don't know anything about him... But I think for now that's the way it lines up.”
4Russell Wilson to be 1st on the depth chart“Russ is gonna win the job because it's gonna be his job.”
5Jameis Winston to be 2nd on the depth chart“Jameis is gonna be your backup, veteran backup”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Abdul Carter to be 1st on the depth chart¹	Depth Chart Calls	No. 3	83.33	91.67	−16.67
Tyler Shough to be 1st on the depth chart²	Depth Chart Calls	No. 1	100	91.67	+16.67
Jaxson Dart to be 3rd on the depth chart³	Depth Chart Calls	No. 1	83.33	91.67	−16.67
Russell Wilson to be 1st on the depth chart⁴	Depth Chart Calls	No. 2	91.67	91.67	0
Jameis Winston to be 2nd on the depth chart⁵	Depth Chart Calls	No. 3	91.67	83.33	+16.67
5 calls · 5 hits · all settled			90	90

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 5 depth chart calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 90 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

1They said

3What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

1Depth Chart Calls Abdul Carter New York Giants
Abdul Carter to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 3called No. 1 · by defensive snaps
83.33Hit · naive 91.67
83.33this call91.67a naive guess−8.34worse than naive2difficulty−16.67skill
How this was scored
club:
NYG
skill:
−16.67
player:
Abdul Carter
season:
2025
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
91.67
position:
LB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
3
difficulty:
2
measured by:
defensive snaps
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
2Depth Chart Calls Tyler Shough New Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards
100Hit · naive 91.67
100this call91.67a naive guess8.33better than naive2difficulty+16.67skill
How this was scored
club:
NO
skill:
16.67
player:
Tyler Shough
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
3Depth Chart Calls Jaxson Dart New York Giants
Jaxson Dart to be 3rd on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 3 · by passing yards
83.33Hit · naive 91.67
83.33this call91.67a naive guess−8.34worse than naive2difficulty−16.67skill
How this was scored
club:
NYG
skill:
−16.67
player:
Jaxson Dart
season:
2025
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
3
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
4Depth Chart Calls Russell Wilson New York Giants
Russell Wilson to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 2called No. 1 · by passing yards
91.67Hit · naive 91.67
91.67this call91.67a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
club:
NYG
skill:
0
player:
Russell Wilson
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
5Depth Chart Calls Jameis Winston New York Giants
Jameis Winston to be 2nd on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 3called No. 2 · by passing yards
91.67Hit · naive 83.33
91.67this call83.33a naive guess8.34better than naive2difficulty+16.67skill
How this was scored
club:
NYG
skill:
16.67
player:
Jameis Winston
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
83.33
position:
QB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
3
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
90naive 90

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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