AJ Hawk· Dec 5, 2025
AJ made his week 14 NFL picks, taking the Jaguars, Bengals, Buccaneers, Steelers, Seahawks, Jets, Browns, Commanders, Broncos, Packers, Rams and Texans.
“I'm going back and forth on this one, but I like what Aaron Glenn's got going on. Give me the Jets plus three here.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast) · read the original →
12 checkable claims — 12 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
11 of 12 have settled so far, averaging 54.5 out of 100, against 36.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
12 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersDec 5, 2025
Green Bay Packers to beat Bears
“I'm taking a pack here at home. ... AJ said I don't care what the number is. Give me the Green Bay Packers.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 21-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsDec 5, 2025
New York Jets to beat Miami Dolphins
“Give me the Jets plus three here.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIA
- score:
- 34-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersDec 5, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat New Orleans Saints
“I like the, I like Tampa Bay Bucks at home. Give me bake and the crew too.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NO
- score:
- 24-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksPittsburgh SteelersDec 5, 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Baltimore Ravens
“I'll give me the Steelers here, man. I think they find a way to keep it close.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 27-22
- skill:
- 128
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsDec 5, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Indianapolis Colts
“I'm in their city right now, but I'm going Jags on this one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 19-36
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsDec 5, 2025
Los Angeles Rams to beat Cardinals
“I think the Rams are still one of the best, football teams in the NFL, so give me the Rams here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 45-17
- skill:
- 128
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ARI
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansDec 5, 2025
Houston Texans to beat Kansas City
“I like the Houston Texans here. I know they're underdogs in Kansas City.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 20-10
- skill:
- 128
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksCincinnati BengalsDec 5, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Buffalo Bills
“watching Joe Burrow, you know, breathe some life back into this team, I'm gonna take the Bengals”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 34-39
- skill:
- -128
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksDec 5, 2025
Seattle Seahawks to beat Falcons
“I like Sam Donald in Seattle and what they are doing. ... So give me the Seahawks.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 37-9
- skill:
- 128
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksCleveland BrownsDec 5, 2025
Cleveland Browns to beat Tennessee Titans
“Yep. I like the Browns as well.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- TEN
- score:
- 31-29
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CLE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CLE
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksWashington CommandersDec 5, 2025
Washington Commanders to beat Minnesota Vikings
“Yep. Same as you, commanders.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 0-31
- skill:
- -128
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosDec 5, 2025
Denver Broncos to win
“Yep. I love the Broncos here at minus seven.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Denver BroncosHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.