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Robert SmithFeb 8, 2023

Smith ranks the top 10 running backs potentially heading to 2023 free agency, with Saquon Barkley first, Josh Jacobs second and Tony Pollard third, praising explosiveness and pass-catching versatility.

Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original

83Hit · out of 100
Top Player ListsThe callsettled
50A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
83.03This callout of 100
+33.03Skillafter difficulty

What Robert Smith said

Here are my top-10 running backs potentially heading to free agency this offseason
Robert Smith’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was published
The 33rd Team
The piece
2023 NFL Free Agency: Ranking Top 10 Running Backs on the Market | The 33rd Team

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.

  1. SaidFeb 8, 2023
  2. GradedAug 5, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 83 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Top Player Lists

    “Top 10 Free Agent Running Backs — 10. Jerick McKinnon ... 1. Saquon Barkley, New York Giants”

    VerdictHit
    83.03Hit · naive 50
    83.03this call50a naive guess33.03better than naive1difficulty+33.03skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    a coin-flip ordering scores 50
    skill:
    33.03
    placed:
    10
    season:
    2022
    players:
    10
    accuracy:
    83.03
    baseline:
    50
    by position:
    RB 10: 83.03
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    could not place:
    0
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

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