Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Jaron SporSep 17, 2026

The host predicted a comfortable Buccaneers win over Cleveland, 27-10, picked Jacksonville as an upset winner at Denver, said the Giants could win seven or eight games as a sneaky team, and expected Deshaun Watson and the Browns to part ways soon.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Bucs (podcast)Hear the original

0 of 2calls landed2 misses · 3 waiting
9.5Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
71.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
3Waitingnot graded yet

What Jaron Spor said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I'll go 27 to 10.
Jaron Spor, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Locked On Bucs (podcast)
The episode
BUCS SQUAD SHOW: Bucs Biggest Concern? | Browns Preview & Week 2 Predictions
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidSep 16
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 29
  1. 1Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Broncos“I I think the Jaguars and Broncos actually on my, locked on Mississippi State one... Jacksonville is actually not favored in that one. So that was one I was picking as an upset”
  2. 2Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 — Browns 10“Ultimately, I think they're gonna end up dominating pretty well. I think they're gonna win. I'll go 27 to 10.”
  3. 3New York Giants to beat expectations“I thought the Giants could be kind of a sneaky team, not a sneaky playoff team, just a sneaky team that no one's really talking about that could surprise some people win seven, eight games.”
  4. 4Season Win Totals“a sneaky team that no one's really talking about that could surprise some people win seven, eight games”
  5. 5Deshaun Watson to move — “a parting of ways between the two pretty soon”“I I think you'll probably see a parting of ways between the the two here pretty soon.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Broncos1Game Outcome PicksBroncos 20–130100−194
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 — Browns 102Score PredictionsBrowns 23–1919.0542.56−45.61
New York Giants to beat expectations3Surprise Team Calls————
“a sneaky team that no one's really talking about that could…”4Season Win Totals————
Deshaun Watson to move — “a parting of ways between the two pretty soon”5Trade and Signing Calls————
5 calls · 2 misses · 3 waiting9.571.3

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 1 game outcome pick, 1 score prediction, 1 season win total, 1 surprise team call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 9.5 out of 100, against 71.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksJacksonville Jaguars

    Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Broncos

    What happenedBroncos 20–13Jaguars at Broncos
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.94difficulty−194skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Broncos by 2.5 · underdog pick, Jaguars 43%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    13-20
    skill:
    −194
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Score PredictionsTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 — Browns 10

    What happenedBrowns 23–19called Buccaneers by 17 · lost by 4
    19.05Miss · naive 42.56
    19.05this call42.56a naive guess−23.51worse than naive1.94difficulty−45.61skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Buccaneers by 8.5, total 41.5 · this 27–10 calls a bigger Buccaneers win (by 17) and fewer points (37).

    How this was scored
    score:
    23-19
    skill:
    −45.61
    they picked:
    TB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    19.05
    baseline:
    42.56
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    0.88
    predicted margin:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Surprise Team CallsNew York Giants

    New York Giants to beat expectations

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Season Win TotalsNew York Giants

    “a sneaky team that no one's really talking about that could surprise some people win seven, eight games”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Trade and Signing CallsDeshaun Watson

    Deshaun Watson to move — “a parting of ways between the two pretty soon”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  6. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    9.5naive 71.3

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these