Jaron Spor· Sep 17, 2026
The host predicted a comfortable Buccaneers win over Cleveland, 27-10, picked Jacksonville as an upset winner at Denver, said the Giants could win seven or eight games as a sneaky team, and expected Deshaun Watson and the Browns to part ways soon.
“I'll go 27 to 10.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Bucs (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 1 game outcome pick, 1 score prediction, 1 season win total, 1 surprise team call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 9.5 out of 100, against 71.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Browns at Buccaneers 10 calls
- Jaguars at Broncos 38 calls
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 17, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Broncos
“I I think the Jaguars and Broncos actually on my, locked on Mississippi State one... Jacksonville is actually not favored in that one. So that was one I was picking as an upset”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- -194
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Score PredictionsTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 17, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 — Browns 10
“Ultimately, I think they're gonna end up dominating pretty well. I think they're gonna win. I'll go 27 to 10.”
Miss · 19Scored 19.05a naive guess scored 42.56-45.61 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 23-19
- skill:
- -45.61
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 19.05
- baseline:
- 42.56
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 17
- Surprise Team CallsNew York GiantsSep 17, 2026
New York Giants to beat expectations
“I thought the Giants could be kind of a sneaky team, not a sneaky playoff team, just a sneaky team that no one's really talking about that could surprise some people win seven, eight games.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Trade and Signing CallsDeshaun WatsonSep 17, 2026
Deshaun Watson to move — “a parting of ways between the two pretty soon”
“I I think you'll probably see a parting of ways between the the two here pretty soon.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Season Win TotalsNew York GiantsSep 17, 2026
New York Giants to finish with ? wins
“a sneaky team that no one's really talking about that could surprise some people win seven, eight games”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Jacksonville JaguarsClose · 50Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.