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Bobby BonesSep 30, 2026

Bobby Bones gave their Week 3 top-five power rankings (49ers first, Chiefs second, Bills third, Broncos fourth, Rams fifth), a bonus top-five quarterback list led by Brock Purdy, and called the Raiders' next three games as a loss to Kansas City, a win over New England and a loss to Buffalo.

Said on air or in an interview · Good Morning Football (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 miss · 1 waiting
66.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
33.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3Games calledeveryone’s picks below
1Waitingnot graded yet

What Bobby Bones said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I'm still putting the Rams at number five. It's the first time I've ever had a below 500 team in my power rankings.
Bobby Bones, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Good Morning Football (podcast)
The episode
Lots to Say: Week 3 Power Rankings and Fmr NFL DT Gerald McCoy
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidSep 30
  2. PlayedOct 4–18
  3. GradedOct 5–19
  1. 1Buffalo Bills to beat Raiders“The next three games for the Raiders are the Chiefs, L, Patriots win, Bills, L.”
  2. 2Las Vegas Raiders to beat Patriots“The next three games for the Raiders are the Chiefs, L, Patriots win, Bills, L.”
  3. 3Kansas City Chiefs to beat Raiders“The next three games for the Raiders are the Chiefs, L, Patriots win, Bills, L.”
  4. 4Power Rankings“Here we go at number five with a 1-2 record, the Rams... number four, I have the team that just beat the Rams, the Denver Broncos... At number three, the Buffalo Bills at 3-0... And number two, the Kansas City Chiefs... At number one, the San Francisco 49ers.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Buffalo Bills to beat Raiders1Game Outcome PicksBills 33–301000+183
Las Vegas Raiders to beat Patriots2Game Outcome PicksPatriots 45–170100−183
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Raiders3Game Outcome PicksChiefs 30–271000+183
“Here we go at number five with a 1-2 record, the Rams... number…”4Power Rankings————
4 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · 1 waiting66.733.3

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

4 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat Raiders

    What happenedBills 33–30Bills at Raiders
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.83difficulty+183skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    33-30
    skill:
    183
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    LV
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    15
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas Raiders

    Las Vegas Raiders to beat Patriots

    What happenedPatriots 45–17Raiders at Patriots
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.83difficulty−183skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    17-45
    skill:
    −183
    they picked:
    LV
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    15
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksKansas City Chiefs

    Kansas City Chiefs to beat Raiders

    What happenedChiefs 30–27Chiefs at Raiders
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.83difficulty+183skill

    Closing line (Oct 4): Chiefs by 4.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 2 in 3 (66%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    30-27
    skill:
    183
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    LV
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    15
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Power Rankings

    “Here we go at number five with a 1-2 record, the Rams... number four, I have the team that just beat the Rams, the Denver Broncos... At number three, the Buffalo Bills at 3-0... And number two, the Kansas City Chiefs... At number one, the San Francisco 49ers.”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  5. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    66.7naive 33.3

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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