Marcus Mosher· Sep 10, 2024
Mosher's Week 2 power rankings place the Chiefs first, 49ers second and Lions third, with the Panthers last. Along the way he suggests the Chargers look like a potential wild-card team, the Buccaneers could win the NFC South again, the Patriots may not be a playoff team, and Drew Lock will eventually replace Daniel Jones as the Giants' starter.
“The Buccaneers have won the NFC South in three straight seasons, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they did it again this year.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Sep 10, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
4 checkable claims — 1 depth chart call, 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 90.9 out of 100, against 66.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 10, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
“The Buccaneers have won the NFC South in three straight seasons, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they did it again this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- won the division:
- yes
- Power RankingsSep 10, 2024
“NFL Week 2 Power Rankings — 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. Carolina Panthers”
Close · 72Scored 72.12a naive guess scored 67.38+9.21 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 9.21
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 72.12
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Depth Chart CallsDrew LockNew York GiantsSep 10, 2024
Drew Lock to be 1st on the depth chart
“It feels like it's only a matter of when, not if, Drew Lock will take over for Jones under center.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.17 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- -16.17
- player:
- Drew Lock
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles ChargersSep 10, 2024
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“The Chargers are still a year away from being a legit contender in the AFC, but they have the look of a potential wild-card team right away.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+194 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 194
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 17
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New York GiantsHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Marcus RayScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19Marcus predicted a 30-13 Buccaneers win over Cleveland with three touchdowns and three field goals, and picked the Raiders to beat a Jim Harbaugh team to start 2-0.
- Ryan LaVoyScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 17LaVoy predicted a 28-10 Buccaneers win over the Browns, said even the Falcons would beat Cleveland, and named Detroit, Baltimore and the Rams as teams he expects in the playoffs.
- Jaron SporScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19The host predicted a comfortable Buccaneers win over Cleveland, 27-10, picked Jacksonville as an upset winner at Denver, said the Giants could win seven or eight games as a sneaky team, and expected Deshaun Watson and the Browns to part ways soon.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0In his Week 3 waiver column, Fitzmaurice makes several depth-chart calls around injuries: Jonah Coleman leading Denver's backfield, Marcus Mariota taking over in Washington, Michael Penix Jr. starting once healthy, and Malik Washington serving as Miami's top receiver, plus availability expectations for Detroit's injured safeties.
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Hit · 100Fox Sports states that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa will serve as Atlanta's backup quarterback in Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. handling the starting duties against Green Bay.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Aaron JonesHit · 100In previewing the 10 most intriguing fantasy performers of Week 2, Fitzmaurice expects Atlanta's quarterback problems to persist with Tua Tagovailoa unlikely to play and Michael Penix Jr. not ready to return, flags Falcons slot corner Billy Bowman Jr. as a possible Week 2 returnee, and describes Aaron Jones as Minnesota's lead back and Kaelon Black as the clear backup to Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco.
- Matt SeveranceDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The CBS Sports preview backs Tampa Bay to beat Cleveland in the Bucs' Week 2 home opener, and states that Deshaun Watson — not Shedeur Sanders — will be Cleveland's starting quarterback in Week 2.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano reports Watson will start Week 2 at Tampa Bay and suggests there's little reason to expect improvement, raising the possibility Watson's five-year contract never yields more than single-digit wins.
- Rich HribarDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Hribar expects Tua Tagovailoa to be Atlanta's starting quarterback for Week 2 while Michael Penix stays out, with Penix's return closer to Week 4. He is unenthusiastic about the Falcons' offense either way and treats Bryce Young as a fringe fantasy starter.