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Rich Hribar#24 of 87 NFL pundits · Jun 28, 2023

In their 2023 fantasy running back tiers, Hribar places Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley in Tier 1 as the backs who check every usage box. They also expect Ekeler and Barkley to retain workhorse/lead-back roles because neither team added a threat to their touches.

Published in writing · Sharp Football AnalysisRead the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 close call · all settled
91.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
83.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3 of 3Settlednone still waiting
#24Rich Hribar’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Rich Hribar said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
The Giants have added no tangible candidates to push Barkley off of significant touches again in 2023.
Rich Hribar, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
Sharp Football Analysis
The piece
Fantasy Football Running Back Tiers, 2023
  1. SaidJun 28, 2023
  2. GradedAug 5, 2026
  1. 1Fantasy Rankings“Tier 1 Fantasy Football RBs: Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley”
  2. 2Austin Ekeler to be 1st on the depth chart“the team added no viable candidates on the depth chart to warrant significant touches or threaten Ekeler's workhorse status.”
  3. 3Saquon Barkley to be 1st on the depth chart“The Giants have added no tangible candidates to push Barkley off of significant touches again in 2023.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
“Tier 1 Fantasy Football RBs: Christian McCaffrey, Austin…”1Fantasy Rankings—7550+50
Austin Ekeler to be 1st on the depth chart2Depth Chart CallsNo. 11001000
Saquon Barkley to be 1st on the depth chart3Depth Chart CallsNo. 11001000
3 calls · 2 hits · 1 close call · all settled91.783.3

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 depth chart calls and 1 fantasy ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 91.7 out of 100, against 83.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Fantasy Rankings

    “Tier 1 Fantasy Football RBs: Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley”

    VerdictClose
    75Close · naive 50
    75this call50a naive guess25better than naive2difficulty+50skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    a coin-flip ordering scores 50
    skill:
    50
    placed:
    3
    season:
    2023
    players:
    3
    accuracy:
    75
    baseline:
    50
    by position:
    RB 3: 75
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    could not place:
    0
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  2. 2Depth Chart CallsAustin EkelerLos Angeles Chargers

    Austin Ekeler to be 1st on the depth chart

    What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by rushing yards
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    LAC
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Austin Ekeler
    season:
    2023
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    RB
    naive slot:
    1
    actual slot:
    1
    difficulty:
    2
    measured by:
    rushing yards
    the naive guess:
    where he sat last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted slot:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  3. 3Depth Chart CallsSaquon BarkleyNew York Giants

    Saquon Barkley to be 1st on the depth chart

    What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by rushing yards
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    NYG
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Saquon Barkley
    season:
    2023
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    RB
    naive slot:
    1
    actual slot:
    1
    difficulty:
    2
    measured by:
    rushing yards
    the naive guess:
    where he sat last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted slot:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    91.7naive 83.3

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