Sam KienzleJan 18, 2025
Iowa Sam took the Chiefs to win while liking Houston with the points, laid the points with the Lions, had the Eagles winning but the Rams covering, and picked the Bills to beat the Ravens.
Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original
What Sam Kienzle said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI will take the Chiefs to win with the Texans plus the points
- Where it was said
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)
- The episode
- Hour 1 - Donation Debate & Playoff Picks
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJan 17, 2025
- GradedAug 17, 2026
- 1Buffalo Bills to beat Ravens“I'm gonna take the Bills to win this game.”
- 2Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans“I will take the Chiefs to win with the Texans plus the points”
- 3Philadelphia Eagles to beat Rams“and Sammy, I will take the Rams to cover. Eagles win, Rams cover.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills to beat Ravens1 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans2 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles to beat Rams3 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 3 calls · 3 hits · all settled | 100 | 100 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive3 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Ravens
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 19): Ravens by 1.5 · a toss-up, Ravens 52%, Bills 48%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 25-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
2Game Outcome PicksKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 18): Chiefs by 9.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 4 in 5 (81%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 14-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Game Outcome PicksPhiladelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Rams
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 19): Eagles by 7 · favorite pick, Eagles about 3 in 4 (73%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 22-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 100
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.