David Harrison· Feb 7, 2026
Harrison proposes and defends a hypothetical trade sending Daron Payne plus a third- and sixth-round pick to the Raiders for Maxx Crosby, plus a follow-up trade of the No. 7 pick to the Jets for picks 16 and 33. He also states Fernando Mendoza is expected to go No. 1 overall to the Raiders, and floats the Jets taking David Bailey at No. 7 if they trade up.
“Fernando Mendoza is expected at least as of right now to go number one overall to the Las Vegas Raiders.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Commanders (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 2 trade and signing calls, 1 mock draft pick and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 65.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“Fernando Mendoza is expected at least as of right now to go number one overall to the Las Vegas Raiders.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Team Draft Slot CallsNew York JetsFeb 7, 2026
New York Jets to pick at number 2
“The jets currently have a first round pick at number two.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 80.52+19.48 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 7 the year before
- skill:
- 19.48
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 80.52
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Daron Payne to move to Las Vegas Raiders
“recapping our trade offer to the Las Vegas Raiders, Deron Payne, defensive tackle, number 71 overall, third round pick, and a sixth round pick in the twenty twenty six NFL draft in exchange for Max Crosby straight up.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Maxx Crosby to move to Washington Commanders
“my trade offer is defensive tackle, Deron Payne, pick number 71, third round overall, and pick number one ninety seven in the sixth round... Or either way, the Las Vegas Raiders then in turn send over Max Crosby.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- Kevin WildesGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsMiss · 0For upset alert Wildes took the Broncos to beat the Rams straight up in Denver and added the Jets to beat the Lions straight up.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Luke McCaffreyHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Luke McCaffreyHit · 100PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back.
More trade and signing calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Adam CarlsonTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Carlson names three Vikings he expects could be traded before the end of September: quarterback J.J. McCarthy, wide receiver Jordan Addison and linebacker Ivan Pace.
- Greg AumanTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Auman argues no quarterback is likely to replicate Sam Darnold's turnaround this season, but names five candidates. He expects Miami to hold a very high pick in the 2027 draft, and thinks J.J. McCarthy will eventually be traded for a late-round pick or cut by the Vikings.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Bryan DeArdoTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Named several players as candidates to be traded before Sunday's cut deadline, including Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy, Cardinals edge Josh Sweat and Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr.
- Bryan DeArdoTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100A CBS Sports piece lists veterans it expects could be traded before the 53-man roster deadline, including quarterbacks Anthony Richardson (with Buffalo floated as a landing spot), J.J. McCarthy and Will Howard, plus Jerry Jeudy, Joey Porter Jr., Tyrone Tracy Jr., Kayvon Thibodeaux, Josh Sweat, Kristian Fulton and Marist Liufau. It also says Mason Rudolph's and Drew Allar's roster spots in Pittsburgh are secure.
- Matthew CollerTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Coller argues J.J. McCarthy's development is far behind schedule and that he will likely end up needing a fresh start with another team rather than developing into the Vikings' answer at quarterback.