David Harrison#57 of 87 NFL pundits · Feb 7, 2026
Harrison proposes and defends a hypothetical trade sending Daron Payne plus a third- and sixth-round pick to the Raiders for Maxx Crosby, plus a follow-up trade of the No. 7 pick to the Jets for picks 16 and 33. They also state Fernando Mendoza is expected to go No. 1 overall to the Raiders, and floats the Jets taking David Bailey at No. 7 if they trade up.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Commanders (podcast)Hear the original
What David Harrison said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromFernando Mendoza is expected at least as of right now to go number one overall to the Las Vegas Raiders.
- Where it was said
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)
- The episode
- UPGRADE: How Washington Commanders LAND Maxx Crosby and Still Secure Top 2026 Draft Talent
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidFeb 7
- GradedAug 14
- 1Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1“Fernando Mendoza is expected at least as of right now to go number one overall to the Las Vegas Raiders.”
- 2New York Jets to pick at number 2“The jets currently have a first round pick at number two.”
- 3Daron Payne to move to Las Vegas Raiders“recapping our trade offer to the Las Vegas Raiders, Deron Payne, defensive tackle, number 71 overall, third round pick, and a sixth round pick in the twenty twenty six NFL draft in exchange for Max Crosby straight up.”
- 4Maxx Crosby to move to Washington Commanders“my trade offer is defensive tackle, Deron Payne, pick number 71, third round overall, and pick number one ninety seven in the sixth round... Or either way, the Las Vegas Raiders then in turn send over Max Crosby.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 11 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 1 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| New York Jets to pick at number 22 | Team Draft Slot Calls | Picked at 2 | 100 | 80.52 | +19.48 | |
| Daron Payne to move to Las Vegas Raiders3 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Maxx Crosby to move to Washington Commanders4 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 4 calls · 2 hits · 2 waiting | 100 | 65.3 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive4 checkable claims — 2 trade and signing calls, 1 mock draft pick and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 65.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
What happenedWent 1mocked at 1100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
2Team Draft Slot CallsNew York Jets
New York Jets to pick at number 2
What happenedPicked at 2called 2100Hit · naive 80.52100this call−80.52a naive guess=19.48better than naive×1difficulty=+19.48skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 7 the year before
- skill:
- 19.48
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 80.52
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Trade and Signing CallsDaron PayneLas Vegas Raiders
Daron Payne to move to Las Vegas Raiders
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
4Trade and Signing CallsMaxx CrosbyWashington Commanders
Maxx Crosby to move to Washington Commanders
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 65.3
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
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Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Gilberto Manzano · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Manzano picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Browns, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
More trade and signing calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.Patricia Traina · Trade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthy · Hit 100
Traina expects defensive tackle to be a top need for the Giants in next year's draft, and suggests the Giants could trade J.J. McCarthy next offseason — or keep both them and Jaxson Dart if the return isn't good enough. They also expect Dart to make a full recovery.Michael David Smith · Trade and Signing Calls · Keenan Allen · Hit 100
Smith suggests the Colts are likely to grant Josh Downs' trade request given their contract situation and their recent sell-off, and that they could also try to trade Keenan Allen.Noah Compton · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Compton expects the rebuilding Colts to keep dealing veterans before the November 10 deadline, naming Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs and Grover Stewart as the likeliest remaining trade candidates, and believes Indianapolis should and likely will move on from quarterback Daniel Jones, while Shane Steichen keeps starting Jones in the meantime.