Harrison Lavelle· Oct 31, 2022

In Split Ticket's penultimate House temperature check, Lavelle expects Republicans to win a House majority, projecting a final Republican total in the 230-240 seat range, with current ratings showing Republicans at 223 seats to Democrats' 195. He picks seven tossups — Republicans in CA-27, NY-19, NY-22, OH-13 and OR-05, Democrats in KS-03 and NH-01 — favors Republicans in NM-02, and keeps a set of late-breaking seats (CA-49, CT-05, OR-06, NV-01, VA-07, WA-08) plus NY-25, CA-26, PA-12, CO-07 and IL-06 in the Democratic column.

“There are a few important caveats that distinguish this aggregate from our predictions, which will likely place final number of Republican House seats in the 230 to 240 seat range.”

published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →

24 checkable claims — 20 race winners, 3 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 24 have settled, averaging 86 out of 100, against 77.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

24 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“Seats that exemplify this category include CA-49, CT-05, OR-06, NV-01, VA-07, and WA-08... we still favor Democrats in each seat”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ca-49
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mike Levin
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in California's district 49
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike Levin
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressOct 31, 2022
“supports the expectation that the GOP should amass a respectable House majority next week”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
101
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“This race reminds us of those in California's 26th and Pennsylvania's 12th, similarly-blue seats which moved to LIKELY D last week... We believe fundamentals will keep these seats in Democratic hands”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ca-26
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Julia Brownley
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in California's district 26
decided in the:
general
they said:
Julia Brownley
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“Seats that exemplify this category include CA-49, CT-05, OR-06, NV-01, VA-07, and WA-08... we still favor Democrats in each seat”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-nv-01
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Dina Titus
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Nevada's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Dina Titus
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“KS-03 LEANS D ... the data on the importance of social issues post-Dobbs do indeed push us to pick Davids.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ks-03
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Sharice Davids
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Kansas's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
Sharice Davids
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“NH-01 LEANS D ... we feel that the fundamentals of the 1st district favor Pappas... Democrats are pulling away enough to make a close victory the most likely scenario.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-nh-01
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Chris Pappas
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New Hampshire's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Chris Pappas
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsOct 31, 2022
“our predictions, which will likely place final number of Republican House seats in the 230 to 240 seat range”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 55+5.05 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
5.05
topic:
elections
what happened:
222
in their words:
230 to 240 seat range
read as:
as written
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
60
baseline:
55
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
230 to 240
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“Seats that exemplify this category include CA-49, CT-05, OR-06, NV-01, VA-07, and WA-08... we still favor Democrats in each seat”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-wa-08
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Kim Schrier
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Washington's district 8
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kim Schrier
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“In the 19th, a Biden +4.4 seat, Marc Molinaro seems like the frontrunner against Democrat Josh Riley... we expect undecided voters to make the difference for the Republicans here just like in the 22nd.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+50.5 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ny-19
election year:
2022
skill:
50.5
topic:
elections
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Marcus Molinaro
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New York's district 19
decided in the:
general
they said:
Marcus Molinaro
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“California's 26th and Pennsylvania's 12th, similarly-blue seats which moved to LIKELY D last week... We believe fundamentals will keep these seats in Democratic hands”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-pa-12
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Summer Lee
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's district 12
decided in the:
general
they said:
Summer Lee
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsOct 31, 2022
“lead Democrats 223 to 195 after this update; 17 races remain to be picked”
Miss · 10Scored 10a naive guess scored 55-45.45 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Democratic
seats after:
213
skill:
−45.45
topic:
elections
what happened:
213
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
10
baseline:
55
they said:
195
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
seats before:
222
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
222
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“NY-19 and NY-22 LEANS R ... we are comfortable naming Republicans slight favorites”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ny-22
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Brandon M. Williams
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New York's district 22
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brandon M. Williams
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsOct 31, 2022
“Republicans hit the 218 seat mark in our ratings weeks ago, and lead Democrats 223 to 195 after this update; 17 races remain to be picked.”
Hit · 95Scored 95a naive guess scored 55+40.4 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
40.4
topic:
elections
what happened:
222
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
95
baseline:
55
they said:
223
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“CA-27 LEANS R ... Split Ticket believes that a Republican-leaning national environment could give Garcia the boost he needs to win next week.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ca-27
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mike Garcia
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in California's district 27
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike Garcia
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“Seats that exemplify this category include CA-49, CT-05, OR-06, NV-01, VA-07, and WA-08... we still favor Democrats in each seat”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+50.5 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-or-06
election year:
2022
skill:
50.5
topic:
elections
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Andrea Salinas
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Oregon's district 6
decided in the:
general
they said:
Andrea Salinas
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“Our single SAFE to LIKELY D shift comes in New York's 25th... national Republicans have offered some late help to La'Ron Singletary in his bid against incumbent Democrat Joe Morelle... We believe fundamentals will keep these seats in Democratic hands”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ny-25
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Joseph Morelle
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New York's district 25
decided in the:
general
they said:
Joseph Morelle
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“That's partly why we favor Republicans in New Mexico's 2nd”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-nm-02
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Gabe Vasquez
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New Mexico's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Yvette Herrell
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“Two districts are moving from LIKELY to LEANS D , meaning Democrats are still favored to win in each... These are Colorado's 7th and Illinois's 6th”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-il-06
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Sean Casten
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Illinois's district 6
decided in the:
general
they said:
Sean Casten
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is arguably a slight favorite in her Tossup gubernatorial race”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ks
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
arguably a slight favorite
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Laura Kelly
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Kansas gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Laura Kelly
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“Two districts are moving from LIKELY to LEANS D , meaning Democrats are still favored to win in each... These are Colorado's 7th and Illinois's 6th”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-co-07
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Brittany Pettersen
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Colorado's district 7
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brittany Pettersen
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“Seats that exemplify this category include CA-49, CT-05, OR-06, NV-01, VA-07, and WA-08... we still favor Democrats in each seat”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ct-05
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Jahana Hayes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Connecticut's district 5
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jahana Hayes
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“Seats that exemplify this category include CA-49, CT-05, OR-06, NV-01, VA-07, and WA-08... we still favor Democrats in each seat”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-va-07
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Abigail A. Spanberger
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 7
decided in the:
general
they said:
Abigail A. Spanberger
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“OR-05 LEANS R ... it's hard for us to see Jamie McLeod-Skinner reliably besting Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-or-05
election year:
2022
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Oregon's district 5
decided in the:
general
they said:
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2022
“OH-13 LEANS R ... Republicans seem well-poised to win one of the Buckeye State's three Tossup races... we believe fundamentals do indeed benefit Republicans.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-oh-13
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Emilia Sykes
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Ohio's district 13
decided in the:
general
they said:
Madison Gesiotto Gilbert
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.