Rich Hribar#24 of 87 NFL pundits · Jun 21, 2023
Hribar published their 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how they prioritize drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1.
Published in writing · Sharp Football AnalysisRead the original
What Rich Hribar said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromOur first tier of quarterbacks is the trio that has the best odds to finish as the QB1 in overall scoring for the season.
- Where it was published
- Sharp Football Analysis
- The piece
- Fantasy Football Quarterback Tiers, 2023
- The original
- The copy as archived Jun 21, 2023 · the live page
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJun 21, 2023
- GradedAug 5–Sep 18, 2026
- 1Matthew Stafford to finish QB2 (13–24) at his position, by fantasy points“he has a hard road pushing out of the QB2 zone for fantasy purposes this summer”
- 2Derek Carr to finish QB2 (13–24) at his position, by fantasy points“While that leaves Carr as QB2 for fantasy, New Orleans fielded one of the most efficient receiving groups in the league last season.”
- 3Will Levis to be 1st on the depth chart“I would expect that Levis gets a call to start some games in 2023 so that Tennessee can access that they have moving forward.”
- 4Fantasy Rankings“Tier 1: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes ... Tier 8: Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Will Levis, Gardner Minshew, Colt McCoy, Clayton Tune, Jacoby Brissett, Kyle Trask, Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford to finish QB2 (13–24) at his position, by fantasy points1 | Positional Finishes | Finished #15 | 100 | 33.33 | +133.33 | |
| Derek Carr to finish QB2 (13–24) at his position, by fantasy points2 | Positional Finishes | Finished #16 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Will Levis to be 1st on the depth chart3 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 91.67 | +16.67 | |
| “Tier 1: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes ... Tier 8:…”4 | Fantasy Rankings | — | 76.39 | 50 | +52.77 | |
| 4 calls · 3 hits · 1 close call · all settled | 94.1 | 68.8 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive4 checkable claims — 2 positional finishes, 1 depth chart call and 1 fantasy ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 94.1 out of 100, against 68.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
positional finishTheir call against what actually happened.
1Positional FinishesMatthew StaffordLos Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford to finish QB2 (13–24) at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #15by fantasy points100Hit · naive 33.33100this call−33.33a naive guess=66.67better than naive×2difficulty=+133.33skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 133.33
- player:
- Matthew Stafford
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 33.33
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 32
- actual finish:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- QB2 (ranks 13–24)
2Positional FinishesDerek CarrNew Orleans Saints
Derek Carr to finish QB2 (13–24) at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #16by fantasy points100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Derek Carr
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 17
- actual finish:
- 16
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- QB2 (ranks 13–24)
3Depth Chart CallsWill LevisTennessee Titans
Will Levis to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit · naive 91.67100this call−91.67a naive guess=8.33better than naive×2difficulty=+16.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- TEN
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Will Levis
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Tier 1: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes ... Tier 8: Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Will Levis, Gardner Minshew, Colt McCoy, Clayton Tune, Jacoby Brissett, Kyle Trask, Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold”
VerdictClose76.39Close · naive 5076.39this call−50a naive guess=26.39better than naive×2difficulty=+52.77skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 52.77
- placed:
- 39
- season:
- 2023
- players:
- 41
- accuracy:
- 76.39
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 39: 76.39
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
94.1naive 68.8
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd predicts Matt Stafford stays with the Rams rather than moving on, and says Travis Hunter may underachieve because they're being asked to play both ways — Cowherd doubts they're a No. 1 receiver and would slot them as a No. 2 receiver while being a No. 1 corner.Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd believes Matt Stafford's public negotiation posturing means he ultimately stays in Los Angeles, and he flags Travis Hunter as a high draft pick who could underachieve because trying to play both cornerback and receiver full-time will hurt him.Ross Jackson · Roster Spot Calls · Zamir White · Miss 0
Ross Jackson gives their final preseason 53-man roster projection for the New Orleans Saints, naming who makes the initial roster at every position group, who starts on injured reserve or the practice squad, and who the five starting offensive linemen and kicker will be.Doug Joubert · Roster Spot Calls · Charlie Smyth · Hit 100
Joubert projects the Saints' 53-man roster ahead of the cutdown deadline, naming every player they expect to make the team by position group, plus several players they expect to receive PUP/IR designations, and predicting Torricelli Simpkins will later be moved to the practice squad.Ross Jackson · Roster Spot Calls · Charlie Smyth · Hit 100
Ross Jackson lays out their early defensive 53-man roster projection for the 2026 Saints, naming five edge rushers, four interior defensive linemen, five cornerbacks, five linebackers and five safeties, plus their kicker, punter and long snapper, and sends Mike Heldman, Chris Rumph and Jackson Sirmon to the practice squad.
More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Brockman · Positional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Hit 100
Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called their shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.Ryan Tracy · Positional Finishes · Bryan Cook · Miss 0
Tracy argues the Chiefs should address edge rusher and defensive tackle via the draft and use free agency on running back and wide receiver; they name Brian Robinson as their target, expects Kenneth Walker III to re-sign with Seattle, thinks Nick Bolton-style veterans like Jerry Tillery, Derek Nnadi and Mike Pennel shouldn't return, believes Bryan Cook is a top-10 safety the Chiefs can't afford, and predicts a quarterback (Trinidad Chambliss) will rocket up boards so more than one QB goes in the top 10.Pat Gustavson · Positional Finishes · Bijan Robinson · Close 75
Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out their own coaching landing spots.Rich Eisen · Positional Finishes · George Pickens · Hit 100
Eisen called the Rams-winning-it-all take an overreaction but expects Los Angeles to win the NFC West, said they don't see how Myles Garrett fails to win Defensive Player of the Year, and called George Pickens perhaps the third-best receiver in the NFL this season.Chad Ochocinco Johnson · Positional Finishes · Christian Gonzalez · Miss 0
Ochocinco says Christian Gonzalez belongs in the top-five DB conversation, believes Kyler Murray will be elsewhere next year, expects Chase to get a one-game suspension, backs Sam Darnold to bounce back, and floats Jaxon Smith-Njigba reaching 2,000 receiving yards. They also remind listeners they called the Bears and Panthers as teams to watch before the season.