Rich Hribar· Jun 21, 2023
Hribar published his 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how he prioritizes drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1.
“Our first tier of quarterbacks is the trio that has the best odds to finish as the QB1 in overall scoring for the season.”
published in writing · Sharp Football Analysis · read the original (as archived Jun 21, 2023) → · live page
4 checkable claims — 2 positional finishes, 1 depth chart call and 1 fantasy ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 94.1 out of 100, against 68.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
positional finishQB2 (ranks 13–24)They said
15What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Matthew Stafford to finish QB2 (13–24) at his position, by fantasy points
“he has a hard road pushing out of the QB2 zone for fantasy purposes this summer”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 33.33+133.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 133.33
- player:
- Matthew Stafford
- season:
- 2023
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 33.33
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 32
- actual finish:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- QB2 (ranks 13–24)
- Positional FinishesDerek CarrNew Orleans SaintsJun 21, 2023
Derek Carr to finish QB2 (13–24) at his position, by fantasy points
“While that leaves Carr as QB2 for fantasy, New Orleans fielded one of the most efficient receiving groups in the league last season.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Derek Carr
- season:
- 2023
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 17
- actual finish:
- 16
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- QB2 (ranks 13–24)
- Depth Chart CallsWill LevisTennessee TitansJun 21, 2023
Will Levis to be 1st on the depth chart
“I would expect that Levis gets a call to start some games in 2023 so that Tennessee can access that they have moving forward.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- TEN
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Will Levis
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Fantasy RankingsJun 21, 2023
“Tier 1: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes ... Tier 8: Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Will Levis, Gardner Minshew, Colt McCoy, Clayton Tune, Jacoby Brissett, Kyle Trask, Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold”
Close · 76Scored 76.39a naive guess scored 50+52.77 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 52.77
- placed:
- 39
- season:
- 2023
- players:
- 41
- accuracy:
- 76.39
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 39: 76.39
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps.
- Nick WrightScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 33On his Week 3 pick show, Nick Wright gave straight-up final-score predictions for five games, calling blowouts by Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami, a Jacksonville home win over New England, a narrow New Orleans win over the Raiders and a low-scoring Baltimore win over Dallas in Brazil. He also called Seattle the best team in the NFL with the league's best defense.
More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris BrockmanPositional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaHit · 100Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called his shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.
- Ryan TracyPositional Finishes · Bryan CookMiss · 0Tracy argues the Chiefs should address edge rusher and defensive tackle via the draft and use free agency on running back and wide receiver; he names Brian Robinson as his target, expects Kenneth Walker III to re-sign with Seattle, thinks Nick Bolton-style veterans like Jerry Tillery, Derek Nnadi and Mike Pennel shouldn't return, believes Bryan Cook is a top-10 safety the Chiefs can't afford, and predicts a quarterback (Trinidad Chambliss) will rocket up boards so more than one QB goes in the top 10.
- Pat GustavsonPositional Finishes · Bijan RobinsonClose · 75Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out his own coaching landing spots.
- JP AcostaPositional Finishes · Bijan RobinsonClose · 75JP picked the Eagles to beat the 49ers in a low-scoring game and the Jaguars to beat the Bills, called Bijan Robinson the best running back in the league, and named his own first-team All-Pro roster.
- Rich EisenPositional Finishes · George PickensHit · 100Eisen called the Rams-winning-it-all take an overreaction but expects Los Angeles to win the NFC West, said he doesn't see how Myles Garrett fails to win Defensive Player of the Year, and called George Pickens perhaps the third-best receiver in the NFL this season.
- Chad Ochocinco JohnsonPositional Finishes · Christian GonzalezMiss · 0Ochocinco says Christian Gonzalez belongs in the top-five DB conversation, believes Kyler Murray will be elsewhere next year, expects Chase to get a one-game suspension, backs Sam Darnold to bounce back, and floats Jaxon Smith-Njigba reaching 2,000 receiving yards. He also reminds listeners he called the Bears and Panthers as teams to watch before the season.