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Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Feb 23, 2026

Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called their shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 5calls landed3 hits · 2 misses · all settled
64.8Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
35A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5 of 5Settlednone still waiting
#36Chris Brockman’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Chris Brockman said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Three quarterbacks are going in the first round.
Chris Brockman, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode
NFL Combine Preview, Offseason Primer & More
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 12, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidFeb 23
  2. GradedAug 13–14
  1. 1Carson Beck to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“You said Ty Simpson and Carson Beck? ... I am gonna call my shot... It is those three quarterbacks.”
  2. 2Jaxon Smith-Njigba to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards“JSN is the best wide receiver in the NFL and should be the highest paid at the position.”
  3. 3Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1“And we know he's going first. We know he's going number one.”
  4. 4Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“We're gonna come out of the combine thinking not one, not two. Three quarterbacks are going in the first round... You said Ty Simpson and Carson Beck?... I am gonna call my shot... It is those three quarterbacks.”
  5. 5New England Patriots to finish with 7 wins“I've seen some people in New England are already freaking out about a seven and ten season. That's how bad it's gonna be... next year with this with new, you know, the schedule.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Carson Beck to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)1Mock Draft PicksWent 6523.9450—
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards2Positional FinishesFinished #110025+75
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 13Mock Draft PicksWent 110050—
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)4Mock Draft PicksWent 1310050—
New England Patriots to finish with 7 wins5Season Win Totals14000
5 calls · 3 hits · 2 misses · all settled64.835

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 3 mock draft picks, 1 positional finish and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 64.8 out of 100, against 35 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
first round (picks 1–32)They said
65What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Mock Draft PicksCarson Beck

    Carson Beck to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    What happenedWent 65
    23.94Miss · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Carson Beck
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    23.94
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    65
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    23.94
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Positional FinishesJaxon Smith-Njigba

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards

    What happenedFinished #1called #1 · by receiving yards
    100Hit · naive 25
    100this call25a naive guess75better than naive1difficulty+75skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    75
    player:
    Jaxon Smith-Njigba
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    12
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    25
    position:
    WR
    ranked by:
    receiving yards
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    where he finished last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    10
    actual finish:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    predicted finish:
    1
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Mock Draft PicksFernando Mendoza

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    What happenedWent 1mocked at 1
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Mock Draft PicksTy Simpson

    Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    What happenedWent 13
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Ty Simpson
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    13
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Season Win TotalsNew England Patriots

    New England Patriots to finish with 7 wins

    What happened14called 7
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    NE
    naive:
    6.25
    skill:
    0
    what happened:
    14
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    5
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    7
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  6. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once

    64.8naive 35

Who this take is about

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