Pat GustavsonJan 13, 2026
Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out their own coaching landing spots.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)Hear the original
What Pat Gustavson said
But I'll probably say Seattle, New England.
- Where it was said
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)
- The episode
- Wildcard Reactions and Head Coach Landing Spot Predictions - Podcast for 1/13
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJan 13
- GradedAug 13–17
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference Champions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Game Outcome Picks | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Positional Finishes | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Score Predictions | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trade and Signing Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| All | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
12 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 4 positional finishes, 2 conference champions, 1 score prediction and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
11 of 12 have settled so far, averaging 54.9 out of 100, against 51.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Conference Champions2 hitsShow ▸Hide ▾
Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl
“But I'll probably say Seattle, New England.”
NE and SEA wonpicked SEA100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
New England Patriots to reach the Super Bowl
“But I'll probably say Seattle, New England.”
NE and SEA wonpicked NE100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
Game Outcome Picks2 hits · 2 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Seattle Seahawks to beat 49ers
“I I like Seattle too... But probably take Seattle here.”
100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 17): Seahawks by 6.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks 72%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 6-41
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
New England Patriots to beat Texans
“I do think it'll be a close game. I do like the Patriots here.”
100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 18): Patriots by 3 · favorite pick, Patriots 62%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 16-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- 0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1 difficulty = −100 skill
Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 30-33
- skill:
- −100
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Chicago Bears to beat Rams
“You're going Bears down. Bear down. I love I love this team, man. Bear fucking down.”
0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 18): Rams by 3.5 · underdog pick, Bears about 1 in 3 (36%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Positional Finishes1 close call · 3 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by rushing yards
“Bijan Robinson is the best running back in football.”
Finished #4called #1 · by rushing yards75Close75 − 91.67 naive = −16.67 × 1 difficulty = −16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −16.67
- player:
- Bijan Robinson
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- rushing yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 3
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 1
Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards
“There he's the best player in the NFL at me.”
Finished #11called #1 · by passing yards16.67Miss16.67 − 75 naive = −58.33 × 1 difficulty = −58.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −58.33
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 16.67
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 14
- actual finish:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 1
Brock Bowers to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards
“They have Brock Bowers, the best tight end most talented tight end in the league.”
Finished #10called #1 · by receiving yards25Miss25 − 25 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Brock Bowers
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 25
- position:
- TE
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 1
- actual finish:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 1
Drake London to finish top 10 at his position, by receiving yards
“Drake London is a top 10 wide receiver in football.”
Finished #21called #10 · by receiving yards8.33Miss8.33 − 0 naive = 8.33 × 1 difficulty = +8.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Drake London
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 8.33
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 4
- actual finish:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 10
Score Predictions1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
New England Patriots 16 — Texans 13
“I think this is gonna be a very low scoring game. Yeah. You know, I'm we're talking, like, sixteen, thirteen type vibes here.”
78.57Close78.57 − 76.26 naive = 2.31 × 1 difficulty = +2.31 skill
Closing line (Jan 18): Patriots by 3, total 40.5 · this 16–13 calls the line’s margin (Patriots by 3) and fewer points (29).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 16-28
- skill:
- 2.31
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 78.57
- baseline:
- 76.26
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- naive home margin:
- 2.03
- predicted margin:
- 3
Trade and Signing Calls1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Aaron Rodgers to move to Pittsburgh Steelers
“Give it a sixty forty right now saying he's coming back. That's what I'll say right now.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be taken No. 1 overall by the Raiders and to be thrown into the starting lineup immediately, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta within weeks.Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be the No. 1 overall pick and land with the Raiders, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta.JP Acosta · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Acosta expects John Harbaugh's Giants to jump to roughly seven wins in year one, and forecast several offseason moves: Aaron Rodgers returning to Pittsburgh, Daniel Jones returning to the Colts, Kirk Cousins being released by Atlanta, and Brandon Aiyuk leaving San Francisco.Gregg Rosenthal · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Rosenthal gave their award ballot: Drake May atop their MVP list (though they expect Matthew Stafford to actually win), Myles Garrett for Defensive Player of the Year, Bijan Robinson for Offensive Player of the Year, Tetairoa McMillan for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Carson Schwesinger for Defensive Rookie of the Year, Mike Macdonald for Coach of the Year and Broncos O-line coach Zach Strief for Assistant Coach of the Year. They also expect Kirk Cousins to be cut by Atlanta.John Middlekauff · Draft Bust Calls · Caleb Williams · Miss 0
Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.