Pat Gustavson· Jan 13, 2026
Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out his own coaching landing spots.
“But I'll probably say Seattle, New England.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast) · read the original →
12 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 4 positional finishes, 2 conference champions, 1 score prediction and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
11 of 12 have settled so far, averaging 54.9 out of 100, against 51.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
12 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsSeattle SeahawksJan 13, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl
“But I'll probably say Seattle, New England.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Conference ChampionsNew England PatriotsJan 13, 2026
New England Patriots to reach the Super Bowl
“But I'll probably say Seattle, New England.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksJan 13, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to beat 49ers
“I I like Seattle too... But probably take Seattle here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 6-41
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Positional FinishesBijan RobinsonAtlanta FalconsJan 13, 2026
Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by rushing yards
“Bijan Robinson is the best running back in football.”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Bijan Robinson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- rushing yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 3
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Positional FinishesJosh AllenBuffalo BillsJan 13, 2026
Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards
“There he's the best player in the NFL at me.”
Miss · 17Scored 16.67a naive guess scored 75-58.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -58.33
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 16.67
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 14
- actual finish:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Positional FinishesBrock BowersLas Vegas RaidersJan 13, 2026
Brock Bowers to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards
“They have Brock Bowers, the best tight end most talented tight end in the league.”
Miss · 25Scored 25a naive guess scored 25+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Brock Bowers
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 25
- position:
- TE
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 1
- actual finish:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Positional FinishesDrake LondonAtlanta FalconsJan 13, 2026
Drake London to finish top 10 at his position, by receiving yards
“Drake London is a top 10 wide receiver in football.”
Miss · 8Scored 8.33a naive guess scored 0+8.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Drake London
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 8.33
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 4
- actual finish:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 10
- Score PredictionsNew England PatriotsJan 13, 2026
New England Patriots 16 — Texans 13
“I think this is gonna be a very low scoring game. Yeah. You know, I'm we're talking, like, sixteen, thirteen type vibes here.”
Close · 79Scored 78.57a naive guess scored 76.26+2.31 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 16-28
- skill:
- 2.31
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 78.57
- baseline:
- 76.26
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- naive home margin:
- 2.03
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsJan 13, 2026
New England Patriots to beat Texans
“I do think it'll be a close game. I do like the Patriots here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 16-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsJan 13, 2026
Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos
“I like the Bills here.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 30-33
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsJan 13, 2026
Chicago Bears to beat Rams
“You're going Bears down. Bear down. I love I love this team, man. Bear fucking down.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Aaron Rodgers to move to Pittsburgh Steelers
“Give it a sixty forty right now saying he's coming back. That's what I'll say right now.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 31Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.