Harrison Lavelle· Oct 26, 2022

In Split Ticket's House ratings update two weeks before the 2022 midterms, Lavelle shifted most competitive districts rightward while still rating Democrats favored in a long list of seats, gave Republicans the edge in AZ-06, MT-01, NY-01 and OR-05, and said the new ratings leave the GOP at exactly the 218-seat majority threshold.

“Our new ratings keep the GOP at the 218 seat majority threshold, foreshadowing sizable future gains if Republicans win 2/3rds of the outstanding Tossups.”

published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →

26 checkable claims — 25 race winners and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 26 have settled, averaging 91.5 out of 100, against 75.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

26 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“New Mexico’s 1st (Stansbury) (SAFE DEMOCRATIC to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC) ... Incumbent Melanie Stansbury is ultimately favored to win”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-nm-01
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Melanie Stansbury
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New Mexico's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Melanie Stansbury
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“our Leans Democratic seats (i.e., OR-06, WA-08, VA-07) only that Democrats seem slightly favored to win them”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-wa-08
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Kim Schrier
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Washington's district 8
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kim Schrier
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“VA’s 10th (Wexton) (SAFE DEMOCRATIC to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC) ... Democrats aren’t at serious risk here”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-va-10
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Jennifer T. Wexton
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 10
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jennifer T. Wexton
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Oregon’s 4th (Open) (LIKELY DEMOCRATIC to LEANS DEMOCRATIC) ... this seat will be moving from LIKELY to LEANS DEMOCRATIC”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-or-04
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Val Hoyle
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Oregon's district 4
decided in the:
general
they said:
Val Hoyle
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“New Jersey’s 11th (Sherrill) (SAFE DEMOCRATIC to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC) ... Republican Paul DeGroot’s path to a closer-than-expected race is therefore not impossible, merely improbable.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-nj-11
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mike Sherrill
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 11
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike Sherrill
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“While it is reasonable to expect Brownley to hold on, she might win by less-than-expected.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ca-26
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Julia Brownley
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in California's district 26
decided in the:
general
they said:
Julia Brownley
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Montana’s 1st (New) Open (LIKELY to LEANS REPUBLICAN) ... Tranel is a clear underdog”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+51 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-mt-01
election year:
2022
skill:
51
topic:
elections
in their words:
LEANS REPUBLICAN
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ryan K. Zinke
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Montana's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ryan K. Zinke
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Alaska At-Large (D) Peltola (TOSSUP to LEANS DEMOCRATIC) ... Democrats are set to hold onto a Trump +10 seat”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ak-al
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mary Peltola
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Alaska's at-large district
decided in the:
ranked-choice
they said:
Mary Peltola
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“we feel like keeping a LEANS DEMOCRATIC rating unless we get a clearer picture of Zeldin’s position in the gubernatorial race that compels us to predict a Santos win”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-ny-03
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
George A.D. Santos
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New York's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
Robert P. Zimmerman
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“In New York, Split Ticket recently moved the gubernatorial race to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC, acknowledging a potentially-close race between Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin and Governor Kathy Hochul.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ny
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Kathy Hochul
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 New York gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kathy Hochul
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Republicans are not expected to win this seat ... SAFE to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-pa-12
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Summer Lee
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's district 12
decided in the:
general
they said:
Summer Lee
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“California’s 25th and 26th (D) Ruiz & (D) Brownley (SAFE to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC) ... Ruiz is still a capable incumbent who ... should not lose his race against outmatched Republican Brian Hawkins”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ca-25
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raul Ruiz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in California's district 25
decided in the:
general
they said:
Raul Ruiz
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Arizona’s 4th (D) Stanton (LIKELY to LEANS DEMOCRATIC) ... incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton is favored to beat Republican Kelly Cooper”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-az-04
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Greg Stanton
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 4
decided in the:
general
they said:
Greg Stanton
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Down ballot lag in ancestrally-Republican Chester County could help Republican Guy Ciarrocchi exceed expectations against 6th district Democrat Chrissy Houlahan ... SAFE to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-pa-06
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Chrissy Houlahan
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's district 6
decided in the:
general
they said:
Chrissy Houlahan
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen is favored to hold the seat for the Democrats ... LIKELY to LEANS DEMOCRATIC”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-ny-04
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Anthony P. D'Esposito
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New York's district 4
decided in the:
general
they said:
Laura Gillen
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“The GOP is most likely to win the Tossup race in OR-05 (Biden +9)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-or-05
election year:
2022
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
most likely to win the Tossup race
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Oregon's district 5
decided in the:
general
they said:
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Illinois’s 11th (D) Foster (SAFE to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC) ... Foster is clearly favored to win”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-il-11
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Bill Foster
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Illinois's district 11
decided in the:
general
they said:
Bill Foster
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Republican Nick LaLota, in particular, seems poised to comfortably succeed Zeldin ... LEANS to LIKELY REPUBLICAN”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ny-01
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Nicholas J. LaLota
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New York's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Nicholas J. LaLota
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Florida’s 23rd (D) Open (SAFE to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC) ... His shoo-in replacement is Jared Moskowitz”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+51 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-fl-23
election year:
2022
skill:
51
topic:
elections
in their words:
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Jared Moskowitz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Florida's district 23
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jared Moskowitz
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Large statewide victories by Governor DeSantis and Senator Rubio also stand to help GOP nominee Joe Budd”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Marco Rubio
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Marco Rubio
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“our Leans Democratic seats (i.e., OR-06, WA-08, VA-07) only that Democrats seem slightly favored to win them”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+51 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-or-06
election year:
2022
skill:
51
topic:
elections
in their words:
Leans Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Andrea Salinas
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Oregon's district 6
decided in the:
general
they said:
Andrea Salinas
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsOct 26, 2022
“Our new ratings keep the GOP at the 218 seat majority threshold”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 55+25.5 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
25.5
topic:
elections
what happened:
222
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
80
baseline:
55
they said:
218
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Arizona’s 6th (D) Open (LEANS to LIKELY REPUBLICAN) ... Juan Ciscomani ... has long been favored over ex-state senator Kirsten Engel”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-az-06
election year:
2022
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Juan Ciscomani
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 6
decided in the:
general
they said:
Juan Ciscomani
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“North Carolina’s 14th (New) Open (SAFE to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC) ... if entrepreneur Pat Harrigan wants to hold state senator Jeff Jackson to a modest victory”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+51 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-nc-14
election year:
2022
skill:
51
topic:
elections
in their words:
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Jeff Jackson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in North Carolina's district 14
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jeff Jackson
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“our Leans Democratic seats (i.e., OR-06, WA-08, VA-07) only that Democrats seem slightly favored to win them”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-va-07
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Abigail A. Spanberger
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 7
decided in the:
general
they said:
Abigail A. Spanberger
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Large statewide victories by Governor DeSantis and Senator Rubio also stand to help GOP nominee Joe Budd”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron DeSantis
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.