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John Breech#34 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 28, 2026

Breech picked the Eagles to beat the Bears 23-16 on Monday night, and expected Jameis Winston to start at quarterback for the Giants in Week 4 against Arizona while newly acquired J.J. McCarthy gets up to speed.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · all settled
59.5Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
27.2A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#34John Breech’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What John Breech said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
John Breech's pick: Eagles 23-16 over Bears
John Breech, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
NFL Week 3 winners and losers, plus J.J. McCarthy dealt to Giants and Eagles-Bears picks for Monday night
The original
Read the original
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  1. SaidSep 28
  2. PlayedSep 28–Oct 4
  3. GradedSep 29–Oct 5
  1. 1Jameis Winston to be 1st on the depth chart“With McCarthy getting up to speed, Winston will almost certainly be the starter for New York's Week 4 game against Arizona”
  2. 2Philadelphia Eagles 23 — Bears 16“John Breech's pick: Eagles 23-16 over Bears”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Jameis Winston to be 1st on the depth chart1Depth Chart Calls—1000+189
Philadelphia Eagles 23 — Bears 162Score PredictionsBears 27–719.0554.46−66.94
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled59.527.2

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 depth chart call and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 59.5 out of 100, against 27.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Depth Chart CallsJameis WinstonNew York Giants

    Jameis Winston to be 1st on the depth chart

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.89difficulty+189skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    NYG
    week:
    4
    skill:
    189
    player:
    Jameis Winston
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he starts
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    position:
    QB
    reported:
    named the starter
    naive slot:
    3
    settled by:
    a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
    difficulty:
    1.89
    the naive guess:
    he keeps the job he had last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Score PredictionsPhiladelphia Eagles

    Philadelphia Eagles 23 — Bears 16

    What happenedBears 27–7called Eagles by 7 · lost by 20
    19.05Miss · naive 54.46
    19.05this call54.46a naive guess−35.41worse than naive1.89difficulty−66.94skill

    Closing line (Sep 28): Eagles by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 23–16 calls a bigger Eagles win (by 7) and fewer points (39).

    How this was scored
    score:
    7-27
    skill:
    −66.94
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    19.05
    baseline:
    54.46
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    20
    weeks left when called:
    16
    naive home margin:
    0.88
    predicted margin:
    7
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    59.5naive 27.2

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