Harrison Lavelle· Nov 7, 2022

Split Ticket's final House ratings forecast a 234-201 Republican majority, with Republicans picking off a long list of Democratic-held seats (including IN-01, OH-09, RI-02, CT-05, NV-03, PA-17, MI-07, IL-17, TX-34) while Democrats hold ME-02, PA-08, TX-28, MN-02, NY-17, MI-08 and CA-13.

“Split Ticket is predicting a 234 to 201 Republican House majority.”

published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →

37 checkable claims — 34 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 37 have settled, averaging 58.9 out of 100, against 77.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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37 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Ohio-1 (Biden +8.5) (LEANS R) Republican Steve Chabot is favored to beat Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-oh-01
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Greg Landsman
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Ohio's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Steve Chabot
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Minnesota-2 (Biden +7) (LEANS D) Incumbent Democrat Angie Craig is expected to defeat Republican Tyler Kistner in a rematch on Tuesday.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-mn-02
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Angie Craig
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Minnesota's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Angie Craig
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Maine-2 (Trump +6) (LEANS D) Democrat Jared Golden is the slight frontrunner in a rematch against former Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-me-02
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Jared Forrest Golden
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Maine's district 2
decided in the:
ranked-choice
they said:
Jared Forrest Golden
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 7, 2022
“Split Ticket is predicting a 234 to 201 Republican House majority.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Texas-34 (Biden +15.5) (LEANS R)... The 34th District may actually be a more promising target for Republicans”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-tx-34
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Vicente Gonzalez
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Texas's district 34
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mayra Flores
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“California-13 (Biden +11) (LEANS D)... Democratic assemblyman Adam Gray is a slight favorite to defeat Republican businessman John Duarte”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-50 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-ca-13
election year:
2022
skill:
−50
topic:
elections
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John Duarte
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in California's district 13
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Gray
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Michigan-8 (Biden +2) (LEANS D) Democratic incumbent Dan Kildee is favored to win against Republican Paul Junge.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-mi-08
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Daniel T. Kildee
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Michigan's district 8
decided in the:
general
they said:
Daniel T. Kildee
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“New York-17 (Biden +10) (LEANS D)... he is the favorite to beat Republican assemblyman Mike Lawler”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-ny-17
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mike Lawler
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New York's district 17
decided in the:
general
they said:
Sean Patrick Maloney
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“New York-19 (LEANS R)... Split Ticket believes that crossover voters will carry Molinaro over the line with general election turnout”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+50 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ny-19
election year:
2022
skill:
50
topic:
elections
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Marcus Molinaro
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New York's district 19
decided in the:
general
they said:
Marcus Molinaro
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Illinois-17 (Biden +8) (LEANS R)... Republican Esther Joy King... is favored to defeat Democratic weatherman Eric Sorensen”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-il-17
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Eric Sorensen
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Illinois's district 17
decided in the:
general
they said:
Esther Joy King
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Pennsylvania-17 (Biden +6) (LEANS R)... Republican businessman Jeremy Shaffer is slightly favored to defeat Democrat Chris Deluzio”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-pa-17
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Chris Deluzio
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's district 17
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jeremy Shaffer
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Three seats are also moving from LIKELY to LEANS : Georgia-2, New Jersey-3, and Washington-3... Challengers Bob Healey (NJ-03) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03) have both fundraised credibly and chipped away at entrenched partisan leanings enough to run competitive races.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-nj-03
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Andy Kim
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
Andy Kim
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Nevada-1 (LEANS D)... Nevada-1 (Titus) and New Hampshire-1 (Pappas) are two other districts that could very easily throw out their Democratic incumbents.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-nv-01
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Dina Titus
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Nevada's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Dina Titus
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“There are four SAFE to LIKELY shifts in total. California-21, Colorado-3, Washington-6 are moving onto the board because incumbents Jim Costa, Lauren Boebert, and Derek Kilmer underperformed in 2020 and could win by less than 10 points.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ca-21
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Jim Costa
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in California's district 21
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jim Costa
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Texas-28 (Biden +7) (LEANS D)... veteran Democrat Henry Cuellar is a favorite to beat upstart Republican challenger Cassy Garcia in Texas-28.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-tx-28
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Henry Cuellar
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Texas's district 28
decided in the:
general
they said:
Henry Cuellar
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Connecticut-5 (Biden +11) (LEANS D to LEANS R)... Republican George Logan now finds himself favored to unseat Democratic incumbent Jahana Hayes.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-ct-05
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Jahana Hayes
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Connecticut's district 5
decided in the:
general
they said:
George Logan
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“California-21, Colorado-3, Washington-6 are moving onto the board because incumbents Jim Costa, Lauren Boebert, and Derek Kilmer underperformed in 2020 and could win by less than 10 points.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-co-03
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
LIKELY
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Lauren Boebert
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Colorado's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
Lauren Boebert
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“New Hampshire-1 (LEANS D)... Nevada-1 (Titus) and New Hampshire-1 (Pappas) are two other districts that could very easily throw out their Democratic incumbents.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-nh-01
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Chris Pappas
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New Hampshire's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Chris Pappas
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Nevada-3 (Biden +7) (LEANS R) Republican April Becker is favored to defeat Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in the 3rd district”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-nv-03
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Susie Lee
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Nevada's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
April Becker
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Though unopposed last cycle, Raja Krishnamoorthi also falls into this category because Illinois-8 is more Republican down-ballot”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-il-08
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raja Krishnamoorthi
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Illinois's district 8
decided in the:
general
they said:
Raja Krishnamoorthi
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Washington-8 (LEANS D)... fundamentals (i.e. WA primary) point to modest Democratic victories”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-wa-08
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Kim Schrier
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Washington's district 8
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kim Schrier
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Michigan-7 (Biden +1) (LEANS R) Republican state senator Tom Barrett is our pick against incumbent Democrat Elissa Slotkin.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-mi-07
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Elissa Slotkin
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Michigan's district 7
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tom Barrett
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Pennsylvania-8 (Trump +3) (LEANS D) While Kaptur could go down, Trump-district Democrat Matt Cartwright seems likely to join Jared Golden in surviving a difficult year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-pa-08
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Matt Cartwright
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's district 8
decided in the:
general
they said:
Matt Cartwright
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Virginia-7 (LEANS D)... The situation is similar in Virginia-7 (Spanberger) and Washington-8 (Schrier), where fundamentals... point to modest Democratic victories”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-va-07
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Abigail A. Spanberger
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 7
decided in the:
general
they said:
Abigail A. Spanberger
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Nebraska-2 (LEANS R)... Two seats where Republicans are favored to win, Nebraska-2 (Bacon) and New York-19 (Open), could also go the other way.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ne-02
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Don Bacon
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Nebraska's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Don Bacon
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Ohio-9 (Trump +3) (LEANS R) In one of our bolder calls, Republican JR Majewski is favored to unseat long-time Democrat Marcy Kaptur”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-oh-09
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Marcy Kaptur
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Ohio's district 9
decided in the:
general
they said:
J. R. Majewski
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Sanford Bishop (GA-02) had a close call in 2010 but should win more easily this cycle if Black turnout remains strong”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ga-02
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Sanford Bishop
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Georgia's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Sanford Bishop
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“California-49 (LEANS D)... California-49 (Levin) is probably the best opportunity Republicans have to pick off a Democratic seat in the Golden State.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ca-49
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mike Levin
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in California's district 49
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike Levin
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Rhode Island-2 (Biden +14) (LEANS R) Republican Allan Fung is favored against Democrat Seth Magaziner in the 2nd district”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-ri-02
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Seth Magaziner
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Rhode Island's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Allan W. Fung
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“California-21, Colorado-3, Washington-6 are moving onto the board because incumbents Jim Costa, Lauren Boebert, and Derek Kilmer underperformed in 2020 and could win by less than 10 points.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-wa-06
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Derek Kilmer
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Washington's district 6
decided in the:
general
they said:
Derek Kilmer
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Indiana-1 (Biden +8) (LEANS R) Republican Jennifer-Ruth Green is expected to narrowly beat Democratic incumbent Frank Mrvan.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-in-01
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Frank Mrvan
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Indiana's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jennifer-Ruth Green
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 7, 2022
“Split Ticket is predicting a 234 to 201 Republican House majority.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 55-15 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−15
topic:
elections
what happened:
222
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
40
baseline:
55
they said:
234
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“California-22 (Biden +13) (LEANS R)... Republican Rep. David Valadao is favored to beat assemblyman Rudy Salas”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ca-22
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
David Valadao
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in California's district 22
decided in the:
general
they said:
David Valadao
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Three seats are also moving from LIKELY to LEANS : Georgia-2, New Jersey-3, and Washington-3... Challengers Bob Healey (NJ-03) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03) have both fundraised credibly and chipped away at entrenched partisan leanings enough to run competitive races.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-wa-03
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
LEANS
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Washington's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
Joe Kent
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Oregon-6 (LEANS D)... In Oregon-6 (Open) baseline partisanship should help Democrat Andrea Salinas”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+50 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-or-06
election year:
2022
skill:
50
topic:
elections
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Andrea Salinas
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Oregon's district 6
decided in the:
general
they said:
Andrea Salinas
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“New York-3 (LEANS D)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-ny-03
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
George A.D. Santos
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in New York's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
Robert P. Zimmerman
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 7, 2022
“Split Ticket is predicting a 234 to 201 Republican House majority.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 55-15 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Democratic
seats after:
213
skill:
−15
topic:
elections
what happened:
213
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
40
baseline:
55
they said:
201
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
seats before:
222
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
222
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.