Harrison Lavelle· Nov 4, 2022

Relaying Split Ticket's House ratings, he says Republicans are favored to retake the House, with the forecast at 223 GOP seats to 195 Democratic seats and 17 tossups still unallocated. He rates Pennsylvania's 12th Likely Democratic for Summer Lee and Iowa's 1st Likely Republican for Mariannette Miller-Meeks, while noting Leans-rated seats like Virginia's 7th and California's 41st are expected to reelect their incumbents.

“Pennsylvania-12 and Iowa-1 are just two out of a long list of sleeper seats rated either LIKELY D or R for Split Ticket.”

published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 4 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 7 have settled, averaging 86.4 out of 100, against 72.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 4, 2022
“Districts in the latter category, like Democrat Abigail Spanberger's Virginia-7 ... are expected to reelect their incumbents”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-va-07
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Abigail A. Spanberger
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 7
decided in the:
general
they said:
Abigail A. Spanberger
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2022
“Republican Ken Calvert's California-41, are expected to reelect their incumbents”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ca-41
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
LEANS R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ken Calvert
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in California's district 41
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ken Calvert
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 4, 2022
“Split Ticket released its second to last House ratings update showing Republicans favored to take back the majority in the chamber.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
in their words:
favored to take back the majority
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 4, 2022
“Our current forecast gives the GOP 223 seats to the Democrats 195, with 17 Tossups yet to be eliminated.”
Hit · 95Scored 95a naive guess scored 55+40 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
40
topic:
elections
what happened:
222
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
95
baseline:
55
they said:
223
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2022
“progressive Democrat Summer Lee is still a comfortable favorite to win the 12th district ... LIKELY D”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-pa-12
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LIKELY D
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Summer Lee
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's district 12
decided in the:
general
they said:
Summer Lee
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2022
“Democrats have struggled to keep up financially in this district, a sign that Republicans have the race locked up. We tend to agree ... LIKELY R”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-ia-01
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
LIKELY R
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Iowa's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 4, 2022
“Our current forecast gives the GOP 223 seats to the Democrats 195, with 17 Tossups yet to be eliminated.”
Miss · 10Scored 10a naive guess scored 55-45 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Democratic
seats after:
213
skill:
−45
topic:
elections
what happened:
213
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
10
baseline:
55
they said:
195
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
seats before:
222
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
222
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.