Pat McAfeeJan 16, 2026

McAfee predicted Matthew Stafford will win their first MVP award this season, saying they'll be on stage at the NFL Honors regardless of whether the Rams reach the Super Bowl. They also picked the Bills over the Broncos, the Patriots over the Texans, and said the Rams will win a close one in Chicago (while taking the Bears on the spread).

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · all settled

100Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls

0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

2 of 2Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Pat McAfee said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

Matthew Stafford is in the middle of a potential probable MVP season right now.

Pat McAfee, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)
The episode: PMS 2.0 1488 - NFL Divisional Playoffs Preview/Picks, Miami Head Coach Mario Cristobal, University of Miami President/CEO Joseph Echevarria, Jeff Passan, & AJ Hawk
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidJan 16
GradedAug 14

1Matthew Stafford to win MVP“At the end of this one, he's gonna walk up on the stage at the honors whether he's playing in Super Bowl or not playing in Super Bowl, and probably thank everybody that has ever gone into working with him throughout his entire career... as his first time MVP winner.”
2Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears“I'll take the Bears plus four and a half. That doesn't mean they're gonna win, I don't think. I think the Rams put a close one.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Skill
Matthew Stafford to win MVP¹	Award Picks	Matthew Stafford won	100	+100
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears²	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	+100
2 calls · 2 hits · all settled			100

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 award pick and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Award Picks Matthew Stafford Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford to win MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford won
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
100
player:
Matthew Stafford
season:
2025
who won:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
Closing line (Jan 18): Rams by 3.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 2 in 3 (64%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
How this was scored
won:
LAR
score:
20-17
skill:
100
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
CHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 0

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd predicts Matt Stafford stays with the Rams rather than moving on, and says Travis Hunter may underachieve because they're being asked to play both ways — Cowherd doubts they're a No. 1 receiver and would slot them as a No. 2 receiver while being a No. 1 corner.
Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd believes Matt Stafford's public negotiation posturing means he ultimately stays in Los Angeles, and he flags Travis Hunter as a high draft pick who could underachieve because trying to play both cornerback and receiver full-time will hurt him.
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Los Angeles Rams · Hit 93
Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson.
Chris Simms · Score Predictions · Los Angeles Rams · Hit 93
Simms gave a predicted final score for every Week 9 game, picking the Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, Lions, Giants, Rams, Cowboys, Saints, 49ers, Patriots, Seahawks, Texans, Bears and Bills, and also said they wouldn't be shocked to see Jacksonville reach the AFC Championship Game.
Connor Rogers · Game Outcome Picks · Los Angeles Rams · Hit 100
Rogers picked straight-up winners in every Week 9 game, agreeing with Simms on all of them, and gave a 24-20 Bills score over the Vikings on Monday night.
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Los Angeles Rams · Hit 93
Dajani picked all seven featured Week 9 games with final scores, including a blowout Jaguars win in Baltimore, an Atlanta upset of Cincinnati in Madrid, and a narrow Bills win in Minneapolis.

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.