Pat Fitzmaurice#8 of 87 NFL pundits · Jun 14, 2025
Fitzmorris ranks Chase Brown RB11 and expects them to remain Cincinnati's lead back, is far higher than the projections on Drake May (QB9, 700 rushing yards), and views Bucky Irving as an undervalued second-round pick who keeps the Tampa Bay lead job over Rachaad White.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Pat Fitzmaurice said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI do think Chase Brown is still pretty safely going to be the lead back in one of the best offenses in the league.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - 6 Fantasy Football Projections That SCARE Us For 2025 (Ep. 1587)
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJun 13, 2025
- GradedAug 5–19, 2026
- 1Bucky Irving to outplay his draft cost (more of a third or fourth rounder)“I thought he was a pretty solid option in the latter part of the second round of twenty twenty five drafts. I know a lot of people think he's more of a third or fourth rounder, and the projection seem to agree”
- 2Drake Maye to finish top 9 at his position, by fantasy points“So the projections have Drake May QB twenty in fantasy scoring. That's the scary part. I have May at QB nine”
- 3Chase Brown to be 1st on the depth chart“But I do think Chase Brown is still pretty safely going to be the lead back in one of the best offenses in the league.”
- 4Chase Brown to finish top 11 at his position, by fantasy points“so I've Chased Brown at RB eleven in my rankings”
- 5Rachaad White to be 2nd on the depth chart“Rashad was in a pure backup rowl. I don't think there's any chance the pendulum swings back towards Rashad White barring injury”
- 6Bucky Irving to be 1st on the depth chart“Bucky Irving's not going to lose his job back to Rashad White... I don't think there's any chance the pendulum swings back towards Rashad White barring injury”
- 7Drake Maye to record 700 rushing yards“I think if he makes sixteen starts or seventeen, he is going to go for seven hundred rushing yards. And I feel pretty confident about that.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving to outplay his draft cost (more of a third or fourth rounder)1 | Sleeper Calls | — | 0 | 100 | −200 | |
| Drake Maye to finish top 9 at his position, by fantasy points2 | Positional Finishes | Finished #2 | 41.67 | 0 | +83.33 | |
| Chase Brown to be 1st on the depth chart3 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Chase Brown to finish top 11 at his position, by fantasy points4 | Positional Finishes | Finished #10 | 91.67 | 83.33 | +16.67 | |
| Rachaad White to be 2nd on the depth chart5 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 2 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Bucky Irving to be 1st on the depth chart6 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Drake Maye to record 700 rushing yards7 | Player Season Numbers | 450 | 28.57 | 25.8 | +5.54 | |
| 7 calls · 4 hits · 1 close call · 2 misses · all settled | 66 | 72.7 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive7 checkable claims — 3 depth chart calls, 2 positional finishes, 1 player season number and 1 sleeper call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 66 out of 100, against 72.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Sleeper CallsBucky IrvingTampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving to outplay his draft cost (more of a third or fourth rounder)
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×2difficulty=−200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- more of a third or fourth rounder
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Bucky Irving
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB14
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB36
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
2Positional FinishesDrake MayeNew England Patriots
Drake Maye to finish top 9 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #2called #9 · by fantasy points41.67Close · naive 041.67this call−0a naive guess=41.67better than naive×2difficulty=+83.33skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 83.33
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 41.67
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 22
- actual finish:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 9
3Depth Chart CallsChase BrownCincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by rushing yards100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- CIN
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Chase Brown
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Positional FinishesChase BrownCincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown to finish top 11 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #10called #11 · by fantasy points91.67Hit · naive 83.3391.67this call−83.33a naive guess=8.34better than naive×2difficulty=+16.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Chase Brown
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 12
- actual finish:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 11
5Depth Chart CallsRachaad WhiteTampa Bay Buccaneers
Rachaad White to be 2nd on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 2called No. 2 · by rushing yards100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Rachaad White
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
6Depth Chart CallsBucky IrvingTampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by rushing yards100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Bucky Irving
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
7Player Season NumbersDrake MayeNew England Patriots
Drake Maye to record 700 rushing yards
What happened450called 70028.57Miss · naive 25.828.57this call−25.8a naive guess=2.77better than naive×2difficulty=+5.54skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 283.05
- skill:
- 5.54
- what happened:
- 450
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 28.57
- baseline:
- 25.8
- they said:
- 700
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 421
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 145.1
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
66naive 72.7
Who this take is about
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More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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Previewing Week 9 running game matchups, Bodiford expects Jacksonville to win lopsidedly over a depleted Baltimore team, with Bhayshul Tuten sitting out and Chris Rodriguez taking over as lead back, while Joe Fagnano starts at quarterback for the Ravens. They also view Broncos rookie Jonah Coleman as an RB2 going forward.