Pat Fitzmaurice· Jun 14, 2025
Fitzmorris ranks Chase Brown RB11 and expects him to remain Cincinnati's lead back, is far higher than the projections on Drake May (QB9, 700 rushing yards), and views Bucky Irving as an undervalued second-round pick who keeps the Tampa Bay lead job over Rachaad White.
“I do think Chase Brown is still pretty safely going to be the lead back in one of the best offenses in the league.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
7 checkable claims — 3 depth chart calls, 2 positional finishes, 1 player season number and 1 sleeper call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 66 out of 100, against 72.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsBucky IrvingTampa Bay BuccaneersJun 14, 2025
Bucky Irving to outplay his draft cost (more of a third or fourth rounder)
“I thought he was a pretty solid option in the latter part of the second round of twenty twenty five drafts. I know a lot of people think he's more of a third or fourth rounder, and the projection seem to agree”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- more of a third or fourth rounder
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Bucky Irving
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB14
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB36
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Drake Maye to finish top 9 at his position, by fantasy points
“So the projections have Drake May QB twenty in fantasy scoring. That's the scary part. I have May at QB nine”
Close · 42Scored 41.67a naive guess scored 0+83.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 83.33
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 41.67
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 22
- actual finish:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 9
- Depth Chart CallsChase BrownCincinnati BengalsJun 14, 2025
Chase Brown to be 1st on the depth chart
“But I do think Chase Brown is still pretty safely going to be the lead back in one of the best offenses in the league.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CIN
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Chase Brown
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Positional FinishesChase BrownCincinnati BengalsJun 14, 2025
Chase Brown to finish top 11 at his position, by fantasy points
“so I've Chased Brown at RB eleven in my rankings”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 83.33+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Chase Brown
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 12
- actual finish:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 11
Rachaad White to be 2nd on the depth chart
“Rashad was in a pure backup rowl. I don't think there's any chance the pendulum swings back towards Rashad White barring injury”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Rachaad White
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Bucky Irving to be 1st on the depth chart
“Bucky Irving's not going to lose his job back to Rashad White... I don't think there's any chance the pendulum swings back towards Rashad White barring injury”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Bucky Irving
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Drake Maye to record 700 rushing yards
“I think if he makes sixteen starts or seventeen, he is going to go for seven hundred rushing yards. And I feel pretty confident about that.”
Miss · 29Scored 28.57a naive guess scored 25.8+5.54 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 283.05
- skill:
- 5.54
- what happened:
- 450
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 28.57
- baseline:
- 25.8
- predicted:
- 700
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 421
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 145.1
- zero at percent out:
- 50
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Cincinnati BengalsClose · 40Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Marcus RayScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19Marcus predicted a 30-13 Buccaneers win over Cleveland with three touchdowns and three field goals, and picked the Raiders to beat a Jim Harbaugh team to start 2-0.
- Ryan LaVoyScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 17LaVoy predicted a 28-10 Buccaneers win over the Browns, said even the Falcons would beat Cleveland, and named Detroit, Baltimore and the Rams as teams he expects in the playoffs.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Hit · 100Fox Sports states that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa will serve as Atlanta's backup quarterback in Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. handling the starting duties against Green Bay.
- Matt SeveranceDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The CBS Sports preview backs Tampa Bay to beat Cleveland in the Bucs' Week 2 home opener, and states that Deshaun Watson — not Shedeur Sanders — will be Cleveland's starting quarterback in Week 2.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano reports Watson will start Week 2 at Tampa Bay and suggests there's little reason to expect improvement, raising the possibility Watson's five-year contract never yields more than single-digit wins.
- Rich HribarDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Hribar expects Tua Tagovailoa to be Atlanta's starting quarterback for Week 2 while Michael Penix stays out, with Penix's return closer to Week 4. He is unenthusiastic about the Falcons' offense either way and treats Bryce Young as a fringe fantasy starter.
- Bradley LockerDepth Chart Calls · Carson WentzHit · 100PFF's unsigned adjusted power rankings after Week 1 of the 2026 season place the Bills first, the Rams second and the Dolphins last, with notes on quarterback situations in Seattle, Minnesota and Cleveland.
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Miss · 0In a Week 1 recap with no named byline, CBS Sports suggested Michael Penix Jr. would take over as Atlanta's Week 2 starter if healthy, called Ashton Jeanty's sophomore breakout imminent, and warned readers not to overlook San Francisco as NFC West winners.