Cynthia Frelund#45 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 16, 2026
Frelund picks the Rams to beat the Bears in the frigid divisional round game by more than four points, and takes the Broncos to beat the Bills at home by more than a point. Their model also has the Patriots beating the Texans by two, though they decline to make it their official pick.
Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original
What Cynthia Frelund said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think this week, in freezing cold conditions, they pull through and they win by more than four points, and that's the rams
- Where it was said
- Move the Sticks (podcast)
- The episode
- Divisional Round Picks and Giants Hire John Harbaugh with Cynthia Frelund
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJan 16
- GradedAug 5
- 1New England Patriots to beat Texans“I have the Texans by two, so technically I have the Patriot Sorry, the Patriots by two, so the Texans technically on the right side of that.”
- 2Denver Broncos to beat Bills“Picking Denver in the home upset against the Bills... I think that the Broncos in this one, I think that they win, and I think they win by more than one point.”
- 3Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears“I think this week, in freezing cold conditions, they pull through and they win by more than four points, and that's the rams”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots to beat Texans1 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Denver Broncos to beat Bills2 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears3 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 0 | +100 | |
| 3 calls · 3 hits · all settled | 100 | 66.7 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive3 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksNew England Patriots
New England Patriots to beat Texans
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 18): Patriots by 3 · favorite pick, Patriots 62%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 16-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
2Game Outcome PicksDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos to beat Bills
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 30-33
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1difficulty=+100skillClosing line (Jan 18): Rams by 3.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 2 in 3 (64%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 66.7
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd predicts Matt Stafford stays with the Rams rather than moving on, and says Travis Hunter may underachieve because they're being asked to play both ways — Cowherd doubts they're a No. 1 receiver and would slot them as a No. 2 receiver while being a No. 1 corner.Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd believes Matt Stafford's public negotiation posturing means he ultimately stays in Los Angeles, and he flags Travis Hunter as a high draft pick who could underachieve because trying to play both cornerback and receiver full-time will hurt him.Pat Fitzmaurice · Score Predictions · New England Patriots · Miss 14
Fitzmaurice predicted a 24-21 Patriots win over the Packers, said they would not be surprised if Jonathan Taylor were inactive amid trade talk, pegged Jonah Coleman as an RB22 rest-of-season value, expected Evan Hull to be Arizona's backup back, and saw Kerby Joseph returning in Week 10 or 11.Kevin Wildes · Game Outcome Picks · New England Patriots · Miss 0
Wildes took Minnesota over Buffalo, predicted a comfortable roughly 10-point New England win over Green Bay, and switched their Super Bowl matchup to Jaguars–Bears.Nick Wright · Game Outcome Picks · New England Patriots · Miss 0
Wright argued the Jaguars are the AFC's most complete team, calling them the considerable favorite for the No. 1 seed and the only club essentially locked into the playoffs. They also picked Tampa Bay to upset Chicago, had Kansas City sweeping its next three games, liked New England over Green Bay by about a field goal, and updated their Super Bowl matchup to Chiefs–49ers.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.