Matt Verderame#83 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 15, 2026
Verderame picked all 14 Week 6 games, including the Jaguars in London, the Saints over the Giants and the Eagles over the Panthers.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Matt Verderame said
Matt Verderame, the lead quote
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- NFL Week 6 Picks From the MMQB Staff: Packers Could Gain Momentum With Win Over Cowboys
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 15
- PlayedOct 15–19
- GradedOct 16–20
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Outcome Picks | 8 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
| All | 8 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
14 checkable claims — 14 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 14 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 14 have settled, averaging 57.1 out of 100, against 42.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game Outcome Picks8 hits · 6 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
San Francisco 49ers to beat Commanders
“Commanders at 49ers — Matt Verderame: 49ers”
49ers 23–17Commanders at 49ers100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.72 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 19): 49ers by 7.5 · favorite pick, 49ers about 3 in 4 (77%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- SF
- score:
- 17-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Chiefs 22–6Chargers at Chiefs100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.72 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Chiefs by 7.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 4 in 5 (79%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 6-22
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Bills 33–30Bills at Raiders100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.72 difficulty = +172 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Bills by 5.5 · favorite pick, Bills about 2 in 3 (68%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 33-30
- skill:
- 172
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LV
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Buccaneers
“Steelers at Buccaneers — Matt Verderame: Steelers”
Steelers 26–19Steelers at Buccaneers100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.72 difficulty = +172 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Steelers by 2.5 · favorite pick, Steelers 56%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 26-19
- skill:
- 172
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Cardinals 18–16Cardinals at Rams0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.72 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Rams by 12.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 5 in 6 (84%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- ARI
- score:
- 18-16
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Packers 23–13Cowboys at Packers100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.72 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Cowboys by 1.5 · a toss-up, Cowboys 51%, Packers 49%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 13-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Bears 31–23Bears at Falcons100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.72 difficulty = +172 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Bears by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bears 52%, Falcons 48%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 31-23
- skill:
- 172
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Browns 13–10Ravens at Browns0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.72 difficulty = −172 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Ravens by 3 · favorite pick, Ravens 60%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CLE
- score:
- 10-13
- skill:
- −172
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CLE
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Panthers
“Panthers at Eagles — Matt Verderame: Eagles”
Panthers 25–14Panthers at Eagles0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.72 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Panthers by 3 · underdog pick, Eagles 41%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CAR
- score:
- 25-14
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Titans 26–20Titans at Colts0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.72 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Colts by 6.5 · favorite pick, Colts 72%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- TEN
- score:
- 26-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Saints 34–27Saints at Giants100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.72 difficulty = +172 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): a toss-up, about even (Saints 50%, Giants 50%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NO
- score:
- 34-27
- skill:
- 172
- they picked:
- NO
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Patriots 26–19Jets at Patriots100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.72 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Patriots by 7.5 · favorite pick, Patriots about 3 in 4 (74%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 19-26
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Texans
“Texans vs. Jaguars (London, England) — Matt Verderame: Jaguars”
Texans 34–31Texans at Jaguars0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.72 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Jaguars by 2.5 · favorite pick, Jaguars 56%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 34-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Broncos 17–14Seahawks at Broncos0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.72 difficulty = −172 skill
Closing line (Oct 15): Seahawks by 2.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks 58%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 14-17
- skill:
- −172
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on each- Seahawks at BroncosBroncos 17Seahawks 1451 calls →
- Texans at JaguarsTexans 34Jaguars 3133 calls →
- Jets at PatriotsPatriots 26Jets 1924 calls →
- Titans at ColtsTitans 26Colts 2042 calls →
- Ravens at BrownsBrowns 13Ravens 1021 calls →
- Panthers at EaglesPanthers 25Eagles 1423 calls →
- Steelers at BuccaneersSteelers 26Buccaneers 1920 calls →
- Saints at GiantsSaints 34Giants 2722 calls →
- Bears at FalconsBears 31Falcons 2325 calls →
- Cardinals at RamsCardinals 18Rams 1633 calls →
- Chargers at ChiefsChiefs 22Chargers 630 calls →
- Bills at RaidersBills 33Raiders 3023 calls →
- Cowboys at PackersPackers 23Cowboys 1336 calls →
- Commanders at 49ers49ers 23Commanders 1727 calls →
Who this take is about
San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks
Others on the same people
Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.John Pluym · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Pluym picked the Giants, Patriots, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Colts, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.